CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 23, 1:48 PM EDT913
FXUS61 KCLE 231748
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
148 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Mid Atlantic states will move offshore
and allow a warm front to move through the area this afternoon.
High pressure will rebuild back to the west on Thursday. Low
pressure will develop over the central United States on Friday
and will move through the Great Lakes region on Friday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Only very minor changes made to the Noon update. Raised the
maximum temperature a degree or so. Left the slight chance POPs
in the TOL as convection near the IN/MI line might brush that
region in the afternoon.
Previous forecast:
Current forecast is on track with a much warmer day expected.
Temperatures at 850 mb support the current afternoon
predictions. Convection over the CHI area and southern end of
Lake Michigan is weakening as it moves into southern lower MI
and extreme northern Indiana. Some of this activity may approach
nw Ohio this afternoon.
The near term forecast period appears largely uneventful. High
pressure over the region will move east today and allow a warm
front to enter west of it. This front could generate some
convection but the bulk of the activity should be across Lower
Michigan. Have some low PoPs (20%) for the Toledo metro for late
this afternoon, but the overall trends are drier for Ohio. High
temperatures will be in the 70s across the area. A lake breeze
should develop this afternoon and temperatures will cool along
the NE OH/NW PA shorelines during the afternoon hours with winds
off Lake Erie. Skies should clear for tonight and temperatures
will fall into the 50s. High pressure will rebuild southwest for
Thursday and highs should achieve the 70s to lower 80s with
clear conditions. A stronger lake breeze should form on Thursday
afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Aloft, one shortwave trough should sharpen and approach our CWA from
the central Great Plains on Thursday night through Friday before
shifting farther E'ward and across our region Friday night.
During Friday night, a separate shortwave trough axis should
approach our region from the northwestern Great Lakes. At the
surface, attendant troughing impacts the Lake Erie region and Upper
OH Valley. A surface low accompanying the first shortwave through
should wobble NE'ward from the central Great Plains to the Upper MS
Valley Thursday night, then wobble NE'ward from the central Great
Plains to the Upper Saint Lawrence River Valley via the Lake Erie
region between sunset Thursday evening and daybreak Saturday
morning. This low track should allow a surface warm front to sweep
N'ward across our CWA during the daylight hours of Friday before the
front stalls in vicinity of the international border of Lake Erie
early Friday evening. During Friday night, the low's trailing
surface cold front should sweep SE'ward across our CWA. Periods of
showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday night through Friday
night as instability, including elevated instability, is released by
the following: moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of
the warm front and ahead of the shortwave trough axes; low-level
convergence/moist ascent along the cold front. Some thunderstorms
may be strong to severe amidst weak to moderate MUCAPE and moderate
to strong deep layer bulk shear.
Low-level WAA ahead of and behind the warm front should contribute
to Thursday night's lows reaching the 50's to lower 60's around
daybreak and late afternoon highs reaching mainly the 70's on
Friday. Low-level CAA behind the cold front should contribute to
overnight lows reaching the mid 40's to lower 50's around daybreak
Sunday.
The second above-mentioned shortwave trough axis and attendant
surface trough axis should sweep SE'ward across our region on
Saturday morning through early afternoon. Behind the shortwave
trough, a ridge at the surface and aloft should build from the Upper
Midwest and vicinity through Saturday night. Moist isentropic ascent
preceding the shortwave trough axis and low-level convergence/moist
ascent along the attendant surface trough axis should release very
weak, yet sufficient instability to trigger isolated to scattered
rain showers in our CWA during the morning through early afternoon.
Behind the shortwave trough axis, fair weather is expected through
Saturday night as stabilizing subsidence overspreads our CWA.
Daytime highs on Saturday should reach the lower 50's to lower 60's
as the CAA regime at the surface and aloft persists. Considerable
clearing and easing surface winds should promote fairly efficient
nocturnal cooling Saturday evening through daybreak Sunday, when
lows should reach mainly the upper 30's to mid 40's in northern OH
and the mid 30's to lower 40's in NW PA. The coldest lows are
expected in the valleys of interior NW PA. This is where patchy
frost may form.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The ridge at the surface and aloft should continue to impact our
region through Monday. The surface ridge axis should move from the
eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley to near the Canadian
Maritimes, while the ridge axis aloft should shift from the Upper MS
Valley toward the central Great Lakes and vicinity. Current odds
favor fair weather through Monday as stabilizing subsidence
accompanies the ridge. Weakening low-level CAA should give way to
low-level WAA on Sunday as the low-level ridge axis traverses our
region from west to east. Low-level WAA then persists through Monday
as our region becomes located along the western flank of the low-
level ridge. Sunday's late afternoon highs should reach the mid 50's
to upper 60's. The coldest highs are expected along and within
several miles of Lake Erie since a weak synoptic MSLP gradient and
sufficient daytime heating of surface air over land surrounding ~49F
Lake Erie should permit lake breeze development during the late
morning through early evening. Overnight lows should reach the 40's
to lower 50's during the wee hours of Monday morning before readings
begin to moderate toward daybreak as the low-level WAA strengthens.
Daytime heating amidst the stronger low-level WAA are expected to
allow Monday's late afternoon highs to reach mainly the 70's to near
80F in our CWA. However, a Lake Erie lake breeze should develop and
extend several miles inland in far-NE Cuyahoga County to Erie
County, PA. Highs should reach the mid 60's to lower 70's in the
lake breeze.
The ridge at the surface and aloft should begin to exit E'ward
Monday night through Tuesday as a trough aloft approaches from the
northern/central Rockies and Great Plains. This will allow SW'erly
flow aloft, embedded shortwave disturbances, and attendant/subtle
surface trough axes to impact our CWA. In addition, an attendant
surface low should wobble NE'ward across the Upper Midwest and
northern Great Lakes, and perhaps move farther NE'ward toward James
Bay while deepening downstream of the longwave trough axis aloft.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
overnight Monday night through Tuesday due to the release of weak to
moderate instability, including elevated CAPE, via moist isentropic
ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axes and low-level
convergence/moist ascent along the surface trough axes. The
aforementioned instability, steep mid-level lapse rates associated
with an EML plume, and moderate to strong deep layer bulk shear may
allow thunderstorms to become severe. Low-level warm/moist air
advection from the Gulf is expected to intensify Monday night
through Tuesday due to a tightening MSLP gradient between the
departing surface ridge and deepening surface low. Lows should reach
the mid 50's to mid 60's around daybreak Tuesday. Intervals of
sunshine should contribute to highs reaching mainly the upper 70's
to mid 80's Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions are observed and are expected to continue through
the TAF period. FDY has been reporting vsby restrictions at
times...likely due to agricultural activity near the field. The
vsby is currently back to unrestricted, so did not include this
in the TAF. Will monitor decaying convection moving east across
northern IN/southwest MI and a warm front for an isolated shower
or storm near TOL between 19-00z, though confidence remains
below 30% for impacts to the field so continue to omit.
Light, generally westerly winds at 6-12kt this afternoon, except
for CLE and ERI which are impacted by a lake breeze. Winds
generally go light at 5kt our less out of the south-southeast
tonight. Southerly winds increase to 6-12kt on Thursday, with a
lake breeze likely at ERI and possible at CLE in the afternoon.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered to widespread showers
and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
A ridge affects Lake Erie through Thursday night as the ridge axis
moves from the eastern Great Lakes toward New England. A weak MSLP
gradient accompanying the ridge will allow winds to trend variable
in direction and around 5 to 10 knots in magnitude through Thursday.
Winds will trend onshore during the late morning through early
evening hours of today and Thursday due to lake breeze development.
Winds become primarily NE'erly to SE'erly around 5 to 15 knots
Thursday night. Waves of 2 feet or less are expected through
Thursday and waves of 3 feet or less are forecast Thursday night.
A low is expected to move E'ward from the Upper MS Valley to near
western Lake Erie on Friday. This will allow a warm front to sweep
N'ward and then stall near the international border in Lake Erie by
early Friday evening. The warm front's passage is expected to cause
E'erly to SE'erly winds around 10 to 15 knots ahead of the front to
veer to S'erly to SW'erly behind the front as waves remain 3 feet or
less. The low should move ENE'ward across Lake Erie and toward the
Upper Saint Lawrence River Valley Friday night. This should allow
the trailing cold front to sweep SE'ward and away from Lake Erie.
Primarily S'erly to SW'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots over U.S.
waters should veer to NW'erly with the cold front's passage. Waves
of 1 to 3 feet with occasional 4 footers are expected and a Small
Craft Advisory may be needed.
Behind the cold front, a ridge builds gradually from the Upper
Midwest through this Sunday. Accordingly, NW'erly winds around 10 to
20 knots at daybreak Saturday morning are expected to veer gradually
to E'erly to SE'erly and ease to 5 to 15 knots through Sunday.
Accordingly, waves of mainly 3 feet or less are expected, but
occasional 4 footers are possible through the daylight hours of
Saturday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...LaPlante/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Jaszka
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 23, 1:48 PM EDT---------------
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