CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 14, 4:12 AM EDT164
FXUS61 KCLE 140812
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
412 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south across the area Friday morning,
followed by a strong upper level ridge that will persist through
the weekend into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A relative lull is in place across the region as a mesoscale
complex slides east across central and southern OH.
Simultaneously, a well-defined cold front is pushing south
across Lake Erie early this morning, evident on radar and
characterized by decreasing dew points into the 50s behind the
front across Ontario and abrupt, northerly wind shifts.
Unfortunately, this means that much of the region will likely
remain dry once again as the front continues to push south
across the area through today. Depending on the front's
southward progression throughout today, there could be some
additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon,
especially along the US-30 corridor, though given recent trends,
confidence appears to be decreasing in this potential and
anticipate PoPs may need to be lowered in the next update as
residual outflow boundaries appear to be much further south and
east. However, if any storms are able to develop later this
afternoon along the front, they will have a narrow and brief
window to become strong to severe with favorable mid- level
shear of 40 to 50 knots in addition to modest MLCAPE of ~1000
J/kg. These storms would primarily pose a wind/hail threat given
straight and long hodographs.
Quiet and more seasonable weather will arrive on Saturday with
highs generally upper 70s to lower 80s. This will likely be the
last "nice" weather day for a while as a prolonged heat wave begins
to develop on Sunday and is expected to persist through much of
next week. More details on that below.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level high over the southern plains region will migrate
eastward and build over the eastern third of the CONUS for the end
of the week and into early next week. The main story is a building
heat wave over the region that has been in the forecast for a few
days now with temperatures well into the 90s by Monday. Only far NW
PA will potentially remain in the upper 80s, but conversely, on the
western end of the CWA upper 90s should be expected. The
ground/surface continues to dry out overall despite a little rain
yesterday in NW OH which will contribute to the ability of the
temperatures to climb. Will need to see if there will be any cloud
cover, but likely just some cumulus fields for the CWA. The
operational long terms differ a little bit with one having lower
500mb heights and 850mb temperatures, and also suggesting convection
possible with enough layer moisture while the other has a stronger
dome of high pressure aloft and less convective coverage in the
return flow setup. Leaning towards the hotter and drier solution for
this forecast into Monday. Immediate lakeshore areas may be a couple
degrees cooler Monday, but the southerly wind component will likely
eliminate much of that advantage. Dewpoints mainly in the mid 60s to
lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Heat wave will continue into the long term portion of the forecast
towards the end of next week. No real changes to the pattern
overall. The upper level high will likely shift towards the
northeastern US, but this will not change the sensible weather much
for our CWA. Expect 90s to be the norm through the week and very
little in the way of rain chances with no organized systems moving
into the region with the largely blocked upper level pattern. Will
be needing rain by the end of the long term forecast as it stands
with this issuance. Dewpoints persist in the mid 60s to lower 70s
through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR across the TAF sites early this morning with primarily VFR
to persist through the TAF period. There is low confidence of
scattered showers/isolated thunder moving east across the area
early Friday morning, so have not included any mention at this
time. Slightly better chance of a brief window of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms across the US-30 corridor, primarily
impacting CAK/MFD Friday afternoon, so have added vcts mention.
There could be a narrow corridor of MVFR ceilings ahead of an
approaching cold front on Friday morning/afternoon, but
confidence is low.
Winds are generally from the southwest early this morning, 5 to
10 knots. Winds will abruptly shift towards the north behind a
cold front through Friday morning and afternoon, 5 to 10 knots.
Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
With a cold front coming through, onshore winds prevail today
through tonight 15-20kts for the central and western basins of Lake
Erie with 1-3ft wave heights, becoming 10-15kts Saturday with a more
easterly component to the winds and waves gradually subsiding to the
1-2ft range. From Sunday on, expect offshore winds to prevail with
high pressure situated to the east of the region and nearshore wave
heights generally a foot or less through the rest of the forecast
period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected next week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs on several
days. The records for Monday, June 17 to Friday June 21 are
listed below for our official climate sites.
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
06-17 97(1994) 94(1936) 94(2018) 94(2018) 95(1994) 90(2018)
06-18 98(1994) 93(1994) 96(1944) 96(1944) 95(1994) 92(2018)
06-19 98(1995) 94(1994) 92(1995) 94(1994) 94(1994) 92(1931)
06-20 98(1953) 94(1988) 96(1988) 95(1933) 95(1933) 92(2016)
06-21 100(2022) 96(1988) 95(2022) 97(1933) 98(1933) 95(1933)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...26
CLIMATE...
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 14, 4:12 AM EDT---------------
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