IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 15, 2:35 AM EDT085
FXUS63 KIND 150635
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
235 AM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly Cloudy and Cooler Today. Colder tonight.
- Breezy today with gusts of 25 - 30 mph.
- Warming trend towards the end of the week with strong to severe
Thunderstorms possible late Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025
Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in
place over western SD and western NB. Deep low pressure was found
over NE Ontario, and a trailing cold front was well south of Central
Indiana, over eastern KY, TN and NRN MS. GOES16 shows a stream of
high clouds over southern Indiana in the wake of the cold front.
Westerly surface winds and cold air advection was in place across
Central Indiana, as was a moderate pressure gradient due to the
strong high to the west and deep low to the northeast. Aloft, strong
ridging was found over the Rockies, extending north into Western
Canada. A deep upper low was found over NE Ontario, with an upper
trough axis extending southwest across LM to Western IL.
Today -
The upper trough axis will quickly push across Indiana this morning,
resulting in cool, NW flow aloft. Indiana will remain within area of
subsidence, on the lee side of the approaching ridge over the
Rockies. Models show extensive mid level drying across IL and
Indiana this afternoon. Meanwhile within the lower levels the
cyclonic lower level flow that starts the day will slowly wane as
the strong high to the west builds across the area. HRRR shows as
the NW flow builds across Indiana today, moisture within the lower
levels amid the cyclonic flow will spread from northern Indiana
across Central Indiana for much of the day. Forecast soundings
suggest lower level saturation with a mid level inversion and
subsidence aloft. Thus will expect a mostly cloudy day along with
cooler temperatures. Given our cold air advection, highs should
only reach the low to middle 50s. Given the stratocu, a stray
sprinkle, especially in the Kokomo/Anderson and Muncie areas will be
possible. However measurable precipitation will not be expected.
Also of note, another breezy day is expected with wind gusts to
around 25 mph due to the moderate pressure gradient that will remain
in place through much of the day. As the high begins to arrive late
this afternoon, mixing ends and the gradient weakens, gusts will
subside.
Tonight -
A quiet and cold night is in store for Central Indiana. Aloft,
ridging to the west is expected to build across the plains and upper
midwest, keeping northwest lee side flow and subsidence in place
across IL and IN. The strong surface high pressure system is
expected to build eastward by Wednesday morning into the Ohio
valley. Forecast soundings and time heights at that time show a dry
column. Thus mostly clear skies will be expected along with light
winds. Lows in the middle to upper 30s appear expected overnight but
dew point depressions are suggested to remain greater than 4-5F.
This may prevent frost formation, but may need to be addressed again
later today.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025
Wednesday Through Friday.
Any frost that forms Tuesday night will quickly clear Wednesday
morning as temperatures rise into the 40s by 9AM. Broad ridging will
dominate the weather pattern for the middle of the week with the
upper level jet remaining well north of the forecast area. Good flow
from the Gulf will help to bring a return to warmer than normal
temperatures and allow for occasionally breezy conditions Wednesday
and Thursday. A weak upper level wave will bring rain showers to
Iowa and Illinois Thursday and Thursday night, but no local impacts
are expected with good model agreement in the better forcing
remaining west of the forecast area.
Friday Through Monday.
Focus then shifts to the conditional threat for a few strong to
severe storms Friday night as a cold front pushes through central
Indiana. Ahead of the front, continued flow from the Gulf will bring
high temperatures to near 80 and dewpoints into the low 60s. This
warm and moist air will interact with an upper level trough moving
in from the northwest with a seasonably potent blast of cold air
behind it. Showers and storms are expected to initiate along the
southward moving cold front with both dynamics and thermodynamics
favorable for a few strong to severe storms. Details remain fairly
uncertain with model differences on both the timing of the system
and the strength of the cold air behind the system, but models are
beginning to come into better agreement that the better chances for
precipitation will be during the overnight hours.
Cooler air then will move in for Saturday behind the front but this
cooldown will be brief as a much stronger low will be developing
near the Four Corners region late Saturday into Sunday before
pushing into the Midwest early next week bringing additional severe
weather and possibly a return to flooding to the western Ohio Valley.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1123 PM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025
Impacts:
- Gusts 20-30KT on Tuesday
- Brief MVFR Cigs possible on after 12Z, improving to VFR after 16Z.
Discussion:
High pressure in place over the plains will be building across the
TAF sites this period. A moderate pressure gradient will remain in
place across the TAF sites ahead of the high. This will lead to
gusty winds on Tuesday. Forecast soundings suggest CU development on
Tuesday morning, which may initially begin as brief MVFR CIGS. As
temperatures and mixing builds, the CU is expected to rise to VFR
levels.
Surface high pressure engulfing the Mississippi Valley and building
into the Ohio Valley will provide mostly clear skies and light winds
after 00Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Puma
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 15, 2:35 AM EDT---------------
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