IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 11, 1:28 PM EDT114
FXUS63 KIWX 111728
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
128 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After another cool day today, highs climb into the 60s by
Sunday.
- A few showers are possible Sunday but the next good chance of
rain doesn't arrive until Monday. A few thunderstorms are
possible on Monday as well.
- Temperatures next week will remain typical for April with
more chances for rain late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025
Longwave trough over the Eastern CONUS will slowly pinwheel eastward
over the next 48-72 hours, allowing for a brief period of modest
mid/upper level ridge-building over the weekend. However, northerly
flow/CAA is still well underway this morning with 850mb temps
dropping to -5C. This should be offset by a decrease in clouds today
though given commensurate dry air advection. Some stratocu still
likely (particularly in our SE) but do expect partly-mostly sunny
skies which will help keep highs around 50F. Clear skies and light
northerly winds will yield lows around 30F tonight. Frost is likely
but the growing season has not yet begun in our area and will
therefore leave out any mention in the forecast.
Low level ridge axis passes overhead late in the day on Sat. Some
weak/late WAA and continual moderation under strong April sun will
yield highs in the mid/upper 50s. WAA really ramps up Sat night into
Sun as 850mb temps return to 12C by Sun night. Highs will be well
into the 60s by Sun and Mon. Of course increasing theta-e advection
also brings some low chances of rain Sun. Better chances will be
north of our area given passage of some weak shortwaves and more
favorable moisture advection on the nose of the LLJ, but can't rule
out a few stray showers especially north of US-30. Any rain will be
very light and not impactful.
Better chances for rain in our area arrive on Monday with the next
cold front and associated mid/upper trough. This will be another
fairly potent trough though better dynamics are focused north of our
area and best height falls trail the surface cold front
significantly. Strong theta-e advection over the Ohio Valley does
lead to some weak instability Mon afternoon ahead of the front.
Chances for strong storms currently appear just to our SE with an
almost due westerly LLJ. However, will need to keep an eye on this
period for the possibility of storms clipping our SE zones.
Temps take another plunge Tue-Wed next week as the typical spring
roller coaster continues. Expect highs once again around 50F with
lows around 30F before warming back up again later in the week (with
another chance for rain as well).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025
A cold front sinks farther southward today allowing high pressure to
nose farther into the area. This allows for plenty of dry weather
through the taf period keeping flight conditions in VFR. Winds will
generally be out of the north and northwest with sustained winds
today around 10 kts, becoming light to calm tonight.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Roller
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 11, 1:28 PM EDT---------------
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