JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 12, 12:20 AM EDT339
FXUS63 KJKL 120420
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1220 AM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A parade of cold fronts will continue over the next week, with
one having departed the area earlier in the day, another one
arriving Monday night, and yet another one expected on Thursday.
Each system carries a potential for precipitation.
- Temperature swings can be expected over the next week due to the
quick moving nature of significant weather systems.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast as some clearing
in the west is dropping off temperatures there ahead of the
curve over the counties under a Frost Advisory. To capture this
have included the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones, NPW, and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 740 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2025
23Z sfc analysis shows chilly high pressure trying to move into
Kentucky from the northwest. However, departing low pressure is
lingering some light pcpn in the far southeast along with some
higher elevation fog. Low clouds cover the area from this though
there is a clearing line just northwest of the CWA, but progress
eastward is expected to be slow into the night. Currently
temperatures are running in the low to mid 40s. Meanwhile, amid
northerly winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints are generally in the low
to mid 30s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest
obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with a tweaking of
the PoPs per radar and CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 319 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2025
Recent surface analysis across the CONUS is quieter than this time
yesterday. Yesterday's surface low has ejected into the Mid-Atlantic
with the trailing cold front sagging south toward through the
Tennessee Valley. Locally, showers are slowly moving out of the area
but post-frontal CAA and northerly winds are keeping temperatures
cool across the area which is reflected with highs only climbing
into the low to mid-50s for today.
Surface high pressure will build into the region throughout the day
but low-level moisture will keep cloud cover over the area. The
immense cloud cover but skies are starting to clear back into
southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Clearing skies are expected
to continue into this evening and overnight into Saturday. However,
the timing of the clouds exiting and peak cooling can and will
present an issue for the development of frost overnight tonight into
Saturday morning. Current guidance and forecast grids represent the
area mostly under cloud cover, however, areas along and west of the
I-75 corridor are forecast to be cloud-free or have limited clouds
and therefore, a Frost Advisory was issued on a previous shift.
Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region as
upper-level ridging approaches the area. This will keep Saturday dry
and pleasant as highs are forecast to climb into the mid to upper-
50s. Saturday night will feature another chance for frost as clear
skies and continued upper-level cooler northerly flow, widespread
frost will be possible again Saturday night into Sunday. However,
frost will largely be confined to the valleys as flow turns
southwesterly and WAA takes place ahead of an approaching shortwave
trough.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2025
The ensembles and deterministic data suggests surface high pressure
will push off to the southeast Sunday. Meanwhile, in the mid-levels
we will will see ridging from the Southeast US into the Ohio Valley.
This will lead to southerly return flow at the surface and this will
aid in surging afternoon high temperatures back to near normal, with
highs in the mid to upper 60s. This ample warming will continue into
Monday with afternoon highs climbing above normal into the mid to
upper 70s. There is the potential for at least some modest increase
in instability, with MUCAPE values climbing to around 500 to 1000
J/kg. This will be in tandem with ample effective shear values of 40-
50 knots. This is definitely more of a high shear and low CAPE
environment, with effective SHERB climbing above 1. The trend in the
models has been further southward with the better parameter space,
which means far southeast Kentucky likely has the better shot in
seeing at least a marginal chance of a severe storm. The main threat
would be marginally hail given the stronger mid-level lapse rates.
The cold front that leads to the potential for storm on Monday will
pass through eastern Kentucky Monday night. This will usher in
cooler temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s for highs on
Tuesday. The cooler, drier air, and weak high pressure will allow
lows to drop into the low to mid 30s for many locations Tuesday
night. If we see clearing skies this would bring on another round
of frost potential especially in the valleys. By the end of the
forecast period, there is a bit more uncertainty, as the ensembles
and deterministic data diverge some on solutions. However, NBM
does want to bring another disturbance across the area and does go
with likely PoPs which seems a bit high given the uncertainty.
This will have to be watched for trends in the data. Overall
afternoon highs will increase back to near normal, with highs in
the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
Largely MVFR conditions (due to ceilings) should be present to
start the period, but some areas of VFR are also expected,
particularly in northern and western sections of the forecast
area. Continued improvement is forecast, with clouds drying up
from northwest to southeast and giving way to VFR conditions area
wide by around 16Z. VFR conditions then carry through the rest of
the period. Winds will generally be northwest to north less than
10 kts.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106-108-111-114-116.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 12, 12:20 AM EDT---------------
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