ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 6:48 AM EDT881
FXUS61 KILN 101048
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
648 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track across the Ohio Valley today. This will
bring warmer temperatures and a continued chance of precipitation.
Cooler temperatures will follow to close the work week before a ridge
of high pressure offers a warm up heading into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A mid and upper level trof was located over the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley this morning. An embedded shortwave evident on water vapor
imagery to track thru the region this morning with ongoing widespread
rain shifting east and diminishing early.
A strong jet will dig southeast from the central Plains thru the Mid
South causing the mean trof to deepen over region. A surface low to
develop in response to this next shortwave and track toward the Tri-
State toward evening. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are
expected to develop late in the day with the best coverage south of
the Ohio River. Some of the CAM solutions are rather limited on
development this far north. MUCAPE values may peak between 500-1000
J/KG across the far south. Not overly impressed with severe threat
but given the cool profiles can not rule out small hail and gusty
winds.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the low will lift temperatures from the
lower and middle 50s north to the lower and middle 60s south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A mean trof to deepen over the region as strong jet energy digs into
the Mid South. A surface low that develops toward the Tri-State this
evening tracks to southeast with a cold front moving thru the area.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms mainly south of the Ohio
River to decrease this evening but can not rule out some lingering
rain showers thru the night across the far south.
Low temperatures will dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s in the
cold air advection behind the front.
The deep mid level trof to pivot east on Friday. A few lingering
showers may affect the southeast with considerable cloudiness across
the area. Cool temperatures to range from the upper 40s to lower
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Outside of rain chances Monday and a passing sprinkle on Tuesday
(not in forecast as yet), the extended period is generally dry with
peaking temperatures found Sunday night and Monday, followed by a
cold front later Monday.
A deep upper trough just east of the CWA coupled with surface high
in the Midwest will keep a deep northerly flow over the region with
Saturday morning lows in the 30s. High pressure settling over the
CWA and generally sunny skies will let highs rise to the mid 50s. A
continued upward trend in temperatures will occur as surface winds
shift southerly and a building upper level ridge works in. A warm
front north of Ohio will bring highs Sunday to the low 60s and
overnight lows to near 50 in most areas, mid 40s in the lower Scioto
Valley.
Any precipitation from the warm front should remain north of the CWA
for Sunday night. Then a cold front stemming from low pressure over
northern Lake Michigan will cross east and bring some rain showers
Monday. Current timing of this feature with a late day crossing will
encourage highs to reach the low and mid 70s, warmest in the
southeast being warm-sectored for most if not all of the day.
Westerly wind behind the front will let cooler air in with lows
Tuesday morning in the mid-upper 40s.
The upper low in this stacked system will eject eastward and a mean
westerly wind will follow the surface cold front until a s/w
rounding the low crosses se through the CWA, shifting winds more nw
and bringing in the next round of cooler air on Tuesday. Cloudy
skies will limit highs to the mid 50s north, near 60 south.
Overnight lows will again drop into the mid 30s for both Tuesday and
Wednesday nights.
Highs on Wednesday will be cut again as the cold air on nw wind
aloft and a surface high to the west only permit readings to reach
the low 50s north and mid 50s south.
Building upper heights on Thursday will bring a rebound with highs
reaching back into the lower 60s. However, models really begin to
diverge on the mass fields Wednesday night so the last period or so
of the forecast has higher degree of uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread rain rain showers over the eastern TAF sites associated
with a mid level shortwave will continue to shift east of the area
this morning.
CIGs will drop to MVFR early this morning and continue into the
afternoon as the surface low tracks through the area. A cold front
eventually moves through during the afternoon, resulting in a wind
shift to the northwest. Some thunderstorms will be possible this
evening but with the best coverage expected south of the TAF sites.
MVFR ceilings are again expected to develop tonight into Friday.
A period of IFR CIGs is also possible toward sunrise Friday.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs likely Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 6:48 AM EDT---------------
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