PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 7, 9:45 PM EDT701
FXUS61 KPBZ 080145
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
945 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Changeover to snow behind a strong cold front continues tonight,
with isolated lake enhanced snow showers continuing into
Tuesday morning. Impacts are expected to be limited as
accumulations mainly occur on grassy or elevated surfaces.
Another period of seasonably cool and wet weather is expected
Thursday into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mainly snow showers behind the frontal boundary, with some
overnight lake enhancement expected.
- Though accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible, impacts
will be low due to warm surfaces and roadways.
- Dry but cool weather expected Tuesday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The front is approaching the Laurels, and remains about an hour
or so away from MGW. Main impact has been wind gusts, which have
come in a bit higher than NBM/HREF probabilities suggested. Have
seen a number of sites with peak values in the 35 to 45 MPH
range, with PIT having the highest recorded gust at 46 MPH.
Expect these gusts to slowly subside through the night as mixing
eases.
The HRRR has done a decent job of modeling the temperature drop
with the front, and have made only minor adjustments through the
night. Snow rates are light overall, not surprising given the
lagging of colder air and marginal moisture in the DGZ. Road
accumulation has been hard to find, but some grassy accumulation
is noted on area webcams.
Behind the front, dry advection will temper shower activity
until NW flow aloft better taps Lake Erie moisture to develop a
few lake-enhanced snow bands during the overnight hours. HREF
modeling suggests a quick 1-2" of accumulation can't be ruled
out if band duration/intensity is maximized (especially north of
I-80), but continued warm surfaces should ensure minimal
impacts (accumulations mainly occurring on grassy or elevated
surfaces). The ridges, once they change over to snow, could
accumulate an inch or so thanks to upsloping overnight.
High pressure to the west and slowly rising heights aloft will
erode showers Tuesday and attempt to dissipate lingering
stratocu. The cold airmass in place should lead to areal
temperature that is around 20 degrees below the daily average.
As the growing season hasn't official started, no freeze
products will be issued; that said, expect each overnight period
to feature below freezing temperature that may necessitate
protection of outdoor vegetation that is vulnerable to cold
temperature.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Well below normal lows again Wednesday morning.
- Precipitation returns later Wednesday through Thursday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Increasing subsidence and a shallower boundary layer will end
any precipitation on Tuesday. Broad surface high pressure
building in from the west will then maintain dry conditions
through Wednesday should keep the area dry for much of Wednesday
before rain returns ahead of an approaching low later in the
day. The mentioned low center is progged to then pass north of
the region on Thursday. Warm advection in southerly flow will
then moderate temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Below-average temperatures expected through Saturday
- Precipitation ends later on Saturday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Long-range ensemble models remain consistent, showing a cool
pattern through Saturday. A large-scale trough over our region
will likely keep afternoon highs below 60 degrees, with less
than a 25% chance of exceeding that, during this time period.
The highest chance of precipitation will be Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night as a low-pressure system moves through the
Midwest and Ohio River Valley. While rainfall amounts of over a
half inch are currently unlikely (less than 20%) higher
elevations could see closer to that amount due to upslope flow.
There's a possibility of continued precipitation Friday into
Saturday if this noted trough stalls as indicated by a few long-
range ensemble models.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The advancing SFC cold front is easily identifiable on radar,
satellite and in SFC OBs. Dry, clear and VFR conditions will
continue until the front reaches each port.
Rain begins quickly along the leading edge of the strongly
forced front as CIGs settle in near 5kft. Rain is expected to
switch quickly to snow (likely within an hour or less). Pockets
of heavier snow are embedded in this line and have already been
noted upstream at HZY and CLE. Any heavier bursts of snow can
drop to MVFR CIGs and IFR or LIFR VIS. All told the hit of
organized snow will be rather brief, perhaps an hour or so (CLE
saw snow for 75 minutes). Winds pick up sharply along the front
and shift to the W and then NW as it passes with increasing
gusts towards 25kts for most ports.
Behind the front, snow showers become more sporadic in northwest
flow most focused in the usual spots (FKL/DUJ). CIGs become a
hodgepodge of borderline MVFR/VFR with probabilities of CIGS
<3kft peaking near 60% for much of the area except for FKL/DUJ
which remain north of 80%.
SFC high pressure begins to slowly filter in by midnight but the
lingering upper trough is expected to make snow showers tough to
suppress through the day Tuesday.
Outlook...
High pressure to the west and gradually rising heights aloft
will end precipitation chances and erode VFR/MVFR stratocu by
Tuesday evening.
The next low pressure system arrive late Wednesday into Thursday
and is likely to initiate another prolonged period of
restrictions and occasional precipitation chances as deep Great
Lake troughing develops.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frazier
NEAR TERM...Frazier/CL
SHORT TERM...Hefferan/22/88
LONG TERM...Hefferan/88
AVIATION...AK
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 7, 9:45 PM EDT---------------
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