JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 2, 4:53 AM EDT357
FXUS63 KJKL 020853
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
453 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After briefly cooler than normal conditions Tuesday,
temperatures return to above normal levels Wednesday into next
weekend.
- At least northwest parts of eastern Kentucky will probably see
another round of strong to severe storms Wednesday night, and
then again potentially Thursday into Thursday night.
- We are looking for repeated rounds of heavy rain and
thunderstorms to affect eastern Kentucky from Wednesday night
through Sunday - especially northwest parts of the forecast area
where between 3 and 6 inches of rain will be possible over those
several days. This area remains in a flood watch from Wednesday
evening through Sunday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 453 AM EDT WED APR 2 2025
Available shortly...
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 453 AM EDT WED APR 2 2025
To summarize what is forecast to happen before the start of the
forecast period, a surface low will move out of the Central Plains
through the Great Lakes and into Canada. The cyclone will then
abandon its surface cold front which is forecast to be draped over
much of the mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio River Valley. At the
start of the forecast period, this baroclinic zone will be aligned
from southwest to northeast through the Commonwealth primarily
centered from Little Rock, Arkansas to Columbus, Ohio. Several
rounds of showers and storms will move along this area of
baroclinicity leading to widespread hydrologic issues. As for the
JKL CWA, areas along and northwest of an imaginary line of
Johnson County to Wayne County will likely see the highest
impacts from this abandoned cold front. However, any shift in
where the boundary stalls out will play a role in precipitation
totals across the CWA. As a result of this heavy rain and flooding
potential, the WPC has that highlighted area, mentioned above, in
a Day 2 (Friday) Slight to Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall.
By late Friday into early Saturday, a surface low is progged to
develop in Texas and eject northeast toward the Ohio Valley. As the
system lifts northeast, the stationary boundary will lift north into
the Ohio Valley as a warm front and bring decreasing PoP chances for
Saturday but as the system continues to lift toward New England,
the trailing cold front will cross through the CWA for Sunday into
Monday. With the front, showers and storms will begin to increase
in coverage overnight Saturday and are forecast to continue
through early Monday afternoon before tapering off. With this cold
FROPA, the WPC has reintroduced another Slight to Marginal
Excessive Rainfall risk as heavy rainfall is once again expected
with this frontal passage. Surface high pressure will quickly
follow in behind the departing cold front and remain in place
through the end of the period. Lastly, with CAA and clearing
skies, there's potential for widespread frost Tuesday morning and
again Wednesday morning.
Overall, the forecast period will feature several rounds of showers
and storms due to a stalled boundary. This will lead to several days
of heavy rainfall which could result in increased threats for
widespread hydrologic issues through the weekend before drying
out for early next week. Lastly, the period will feature above
average temperatures as daytime highs, through much of the period,
will be in the upper-70s to mid-80s with overnight lows in the
low to mid-60s. The cold front for Monday will usher in below
average temperatures for Tuesday before another subtle warm-up
arrives for Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED APR 2 2025
VFR conditions are in place and will hold through the period under
mainly mid and high layers of clouds. Any stray shower activity
with a warm frontal passage on Wednesday will likely not affect
the TAF sites, with possible exception of SYM. Though surface
winds will be fairly light through sunrise, low-level southerly
flow slowly strengthens through the remainder of the night and
LLWS can be expected until mixing occurs mid-to-late morning.
Once mixed, we can expect gusts of 20-35 kts from the south
continuing through the afternoon.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085-106-108-111.
Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084-104-106>109-111-112-114.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HAL/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 2, 4:53 AM EDT---------------
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