LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 26, 3:52 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...890
FXUS64 KLIX 262052
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
Issued by National Weather Service Mobile AL
352 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
Spring has certainly sprung as temps have climbed well into the
80s today across much of the area. Generally seeing temps 5-10
degrees above average. Our hot spots include 87F at Pascagoula and
Slidell, and near 90F at KREG Gonzales. Mid-level ridging will
hold serve through Thursday, but we'll likely begin to see more
overspreading of cirrus and stratus from broad ascent and
convective remnants over coastal Texas. With more mid- upper
clouds overhead Thursday morning, it may be harder for dense fog
to develop, but still cannot rule out low stratus building down in
spots that stay clearer overnight. Latest SREF guidance is not
overly enthused about dense fog prospects either so this will just
be something to monitor overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
By Friday, a broad shortwave trough will eject out of northern
Mexico near the Rio Grande Valley enhancing lift and pressure
falls across the northwest Gulf. Convective activity in this
time frame will be largely mesoscale driven and dependent on
preceding convection that develops on Thursday night. Global
guidance continues to point toward the potential for an MCS to
develop along the northwest Gulf Coast into southwest LA which
will propagate east into the overnight hours and move into our CWA
Saturday morning. Exact placement and timing of the initiation of
this convection will be crucial and it's to be determined whether
this will materialize to bring impacts to our area. If it were to
develop, we could expect similar impacts to what we saw with the
MCS on Monday with damaging winds and a quick spin-up tornado
being the primary concerns, and less so large hail this time
around.
PWATs will be exceeding 1.6 to 1.8" which is near the daily
climatological max for this time of year. This level of deep
moisture return will also enable highly efficient rainfall rates
with any convection that develops though, again, convective timing
and coverage remains a big question mark at this time. If a larger
MCS materializes, isolated flash flooding especially over urban
and poor drainage areas would be a concern. Thereafter, we should
see this trough and associated convection clear out on Saturday
night.
The long range longwave pattern will favor large scale ridging
over the eastern CONUS which will favor above average temperatures
to persist into next week. NBM guidance spread shows temps in the 80s
with places like Baton Rouge flirting with their first 90 degree
day of the year over the latter half of the forecast period. With
ridging over the east, west coast troughing will continue to
promote ejection of shortwave troughs out of the Four Corners
region and initiate lee cyclogenesis across the Plains. As such,
another lee cyclone is expected to move from the Central Great
Plains up into the Midwest on Sunday through Monday pushing a
frontal system and associated deep, unstable air out ahead of it
through the central and eastern CONUS. While the highest risk for
any potential severe weather appears to stay north of our area, we
will have to keep an eye on if any residual convection clips our
area, particularly southwest MS on Sunday. The front will
gradually slow and drape across the coast on Monday which could
also promote more storm development in the afternoon hours,
especially across southern MS.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
VFR conditions are prevailing now at all terminals as low CIGs
continue to break out into FEW to CLR. Light winds and surface
high pressure will maintain a dry forecast period, but still will
need to monitor for stratus build down tonight. MVFR to IFR CIGs
will be prevailing at most terminals along the coast and cannot
rule out some fuzziness to VIS, but predominantly looks like CIG
issues will be prevailing from around 1000 to 1600 UTC tomorrow.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
Light and erratic winds this morning will shift to east and begin
rising to around 10kt late today. Fog is not expected to be an issue
tonight. Easterly to SE winds will slowly rise to 15-20kt by Thu
and by Fri a moderate SE wind should be well established around
20kt. Stronger showers and storms are likely Friday night through
Saturday with locally higher winds and seas. A wake low with gale-
force winds cannot be ruled out behind these storms. Winds and
seas should calm some though winds will remain southerly ahead of
a weak frontal system pushing off the coast on Monday night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 57 82 60 78 / 0 0 0 30
BTR 60 83 64 79 / 0 0 0 50
ASD 59 82 62 78 / 0 0 0 20
MSY 63 81 65 78 / 0 0 0 30
GPT 58 76 62 76 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 56 79 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...TJS
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 26, 3:52 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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