IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 22, 5:32 AM EDT242
FXUS63 KIWX 220932
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
532 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Two systems move across the Great Lakes this weekend, bringing
a slight chance for light rain showers this morning before
snow showers mix in later today and another, more widespread
chance for mainly rain area-wide on Sunday before again some
snow showers begin to mix in on Monday.
- Seasonable to slightly cooler than normal temperatures
continue through the upcoming week with several additional
chances for rain/snow.
- Warming trend sets in towards the end of next week. Above
normal temperatures will be in place by next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025
Did lower pops for this morning as 15 to 20 degree dew point
depressions has allowed most precipitation to dry before
reaching the ground. This should continue through the morning.
Any precipitation that does reach the ground will be very light.
With the active pattern in place over the next several days we
will continue to see a see-saw pattern for temperatures with
weak troughs bringing some cooling and weak ridging bringing
some warming. Today, a weak trough will continue to move through
the area and will see highs only in the low to mid 40s. A weak
mid level ridge moving through the Midwest will begin to move in
later today and bring a reduction in clouds with a few areas
perhaps clearing out before clouds once again increase ahead of
the next trough moving eastward into the area. Southeasterly winds
will also be on the increase tonight into Sunday bringing
breezy to gusty conditions. Gusts on Sunday will approach 25
mph. With dew points starting out in the teens on Sunday
moisture advection will increase dew points into the 40s by
Sunday afternoon. With this in mind precipitation will be
somewhat delayed especially on the onset as the lower levels
moisten up. By late morning sufficient moistening should allow
for rain showers to begin reaching the ground in our western
parts of the CWA and spread eastward through the day. Latest
model guidance seems to be picking up on this and recent QPF
runs have been lowered. About a quarter inch of rainfall or less
is now expected across the area. Highs on Sunday slightly warmer
in the upper 40s.
By Monday morning, a northwesterly flow will develop across the
area and bring lake enhanced showers with some snow showers
mixing in especially for the northern half of the CWA. The
better chances of snow showers will be near the northern
IN/southern MI border areas. Highs on Monday will range from the
lower 40s north to the upper 40s perhaps low 50s south. We will
see a slight warming trend in temperatures each day Tuesday
through Thursday, with highs ranging in the mid 40s to mid 50s,
along with periods of rain showers and some snow showers mixing
in for overnight periods with the continued parade of weak
disturbances moving through the northwesterly flow aloft. This
is ahead of a high amplitude ridging that will be building over
the central CONUS and by Friday and Saturday high temperatures
will jump into the 60s with a few locations most likely seeing
low 70s, especially south of SR-30. Did keep some convective
rain showers in the forecast at this time but will continue to
monitor this prospect as the strong ridging should limit this
potential.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025
Post-frontal cool cyclonic northwest flow will allow a MVFR to low
VFR stratocu cloud deck to lock in through the early to mid
afternoon hours. Northwest winds gust to near 20 knots as well
during this time, becoming light tonight as a low level ridge axis
translates east through the region.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 22, 5:32 AM EDT---------------
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