CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 21, 6:55 AM EDT845
FXUS61 KCLE 211055
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
655 AM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build into the region today before a
cold front crosses the area tonight into early Saturday. High
pressure returns late Saturday through Sunday before the next
system crosses the region Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will briefly build into the region this morning
and afternoon and any lingering lake-enhanced clouds over NE
OH/NW PA will diminish by mid-morning. Warm air advection will
develop by this afternoon with southwesterly winds increasing as
an upper trough and surface cold front approach from the west.
Wind gusts will likely reach 25 to 30 mph across portions of
north-central and northwestern Ohio this afternoon into tonight
with localized gusts as high as 35 mph possible near the I-75
corridor. High clouds will begin to build in from the west this
afternoon before precipitation chances increase as the upper
trough moves east into the local area tonight. Rain showers may
struggle to reach the ground at the onset due to dry air at the
surface, but PoPs will likely increase in the eastern half of
the area as the front moves east into the CWA overnight. The
front should exit to the east pretty quickly, but continued
upper troughing over NE OH/NW PA will likely result in lake-
enhanced precip through at least early Saturday afternoon.
Colder air will filter in from the northwest behind the cold
front which may allow rain to mix with and/or transition to snow
if showers manage to stick around through the afternoon and/or
early evening. The high sun angle and above-freezing surface
temps should prevent measurable snow accumulation.
Today's highs will reach the lower 50s across most of the area,
but NW PA may remain in the mid to upper 40s. Tonight's lows
will be in the mid to upper 30s with lower 40s possible south of
U.S. 30. Saturday's highs will be in the cooler mid to upper 30s
(NW PA and NE OH) to lower 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds in quickly on Saturday night and we lose
moisture below 850mb, even in NW PA. Cool and dry conditions are
expected with temperatures falling into the 20s and even upper teens
in NW Pennsylvania. Temperatures will fall rapidly during the
evening then level off late with thickening high clouds arriving
from the west.
The next upper level trough will dig into the Upper Midwest on
Sunday with a closed low developing over Wisconsin. An occluded
front extending from a 995mb surface low over Wisconsin will lift
north into the area on Sunday. Precipitation will increase during
the afternoon as lifts ramps up along the elevated warm front. The
front at 925-850mb is tightly packed across Central Ohio and could
result in a swath of locally heavier precipitation where it sets up.
It still looks like precipitation amounts in our forecast area are
most likely to be a little north of this feature in the 0.25-0.50
inch range. Thermal profiles show a lot of dry air below 700mb that
will have to be overcome before precipitation begins. Evaporational
cooling is likely at the onset and could see a brief mix of
rain/snow before quickly turning over to rain. Precipitation mostly
holding off until the afternoon will allow enough time for surface
temperatures to warm into the low 40s before precipitation begins.
Temperatures will also drop back several degrees at the onset with
dewpoints in the 20s. Any mix is expected to be brief and with
little impact with southerly flow resulting in warming both at the
surface and aloft through the day.
Occluded front reaches northern Ohio on Sunday night with
precipitation tapering off as a dry-slot wraps into the system.
Nearly vertically stacked low slides east across the Great Lakes
Region on Monday with cold advection. Scattered light rain showers
are possible but deeper moisture will be a limiting factor so will
keep pops generally less than 50 percent. Winds will be gusty again
with speeds of 15-25 mph and gusts of 30-40 mph. Temperatures will
be cool enough by Monday night for light lake enhanced snow showers
across the snowbelt.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term starts off with below normal temperatures and a trough
across the Great Lakes Region and eastern Canada. It looks like
another shortwave trough may move through the northwest flow across
the Midwest Tuesday night into Wednesday but timing and strength
varies between long range models. This will impact chances of
precipitation during the mid-week period. With poor consistency in
the track of any systems, will carry just low 20-30 percent pops
Tuesday night into Wednesday. It is possible for a system to bring
precipitation during this window but will need to wait for higher
confidence to ramp up pops in the extended. Temperatures are likely
to be below normal through at least Wednesday then gradually trend
warmer to end the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR will prevail through the majority of the TAF period. High
clouds will begin to move into the region from the west this
afternoon into tonight with ceilings beginning to lower as a
cold front tracks into the area late tonight/early Saturday
morning. There's a small chance of a few showers primarily
between 06Z and 12Z Saturday, but the best chance of
precipitation will occur near or shortly after 12Z. PROB30
groups have been added for the chance of showers and MVFR
cigs/vsbys, but prevailing showers will likely need to be added
with the 18Z TAF package.
Winds will back to the southwest this morning and increase to
about 10 to 20 knots this afternoon through tonight. Wind gusts
west of a line from KCLE to KMFD will reach 25 to 30 knots this
afternoon and tonight with gusts to the east likely remaining
in the 15 to 25 knot range. There will likely be a lull in gusts
mixing to the surface for a period tonight so have added LLWS
between about 00Z and 06Z. Gusts will ramp back up after 06Z.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain showers Saturday morning and
in rain/snow showers Saturday afternoon. Non-VFR likely in
widespread rain late Sunday into Monday. Non-VFR is possible in
lingering rain and/or snow showers Monday night.
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect east of Vermilion through
10 AM as high waves linger a few more hours with northerly flow.
Surface ridging will shift east across the area today with winds
developing out of the southwest this afternoon. Southwesterly winds
may reach the 15-25 knot range tonight ahead of a trough that will
pull another cold front south across Lake Erie early Saturday. Small
Craft Advisories may be needed tonight west of Geneva-on-the-Lake
and then continuing on Saturday generally east of Vermilion as waves
build to 4 to 7 feet behind the cold front.
Winds will decrease to 15 knots or less as high pressure builds
overhead Saturday night. An active pattern continues into next week
with another low pressure system moving into the Upper Midwest on
Sunday. An occluded front will lift north to near Lake Erie on
Sunday night followed by a cold front wrapping in from the west on
Monday. Another window of Small Craft conditions are likely Monday
into early Tuesday. Yet another trough is expected to cross the
Great Lakes Region towards mid-week but timing and placement become
less clear with spread between the long range models.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...15
MARINE...10
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 21, 6:55 AM EDT---------------
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