LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 21, 3:23 PM EDT248
FXUS63 KLMK 211923
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
323 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Breezy conditions through Saturday with gusts of 20-25 mph at
times. Lows tonight in the 40s, highs tomorrow in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.
* Rainy Sunday with a chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon and
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025
Central KY and southern IN are seeing filtered sunshine this
afternoon, with satellite imagery showing SCT-BKN cirrus streaming
west to east overhead. These clouds are arriving ahead of an upper
level shortwave trough approaching the MS Valley. At the surface, a
cold front extends from MN southwest through OK. A tightening
pressure field is yielding breezy SW winds in our area, with gusts
of 15-20 mph. After the cold start this morning, temperatures have
warmed into the low/mid 50s. Temperatures will continue to warm into
the mid/upper 50s over the next few hours, with a few spots likely
reaching 60 degrees.
Tonight, the cold front will push southeast through the Midwest/Mid-
MS Valley. A healthy 50+ kt LLJ will stream over the forecast area
ahead of the cold front. SW sfc winds will also remain somewhat
breezy overnight, which will help keep the lowest levels well-mixed.
Expect a milder night than last night, with lows in the low/mid 40s.
With such a dry airmass in place, it still appears the cold front
will pass through mainly dry early Saturday morning. We'll see a
brief uptick in low-level cloud cover, along with a wind shift.
Breezy WNW winds of 10-20 kts are forecast for Saturday in the wake
of the cold front. Temperatures will rebound into the upper 50s to
lower 60s in most areas Saturday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025
Deepening upper trough and associated sfc low will work across the
Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday.
Sfc cold front associated with the sfc low will approach from the
west, winds will become more southerly Sunday, and tightening
pressure gradient will create gusty winds between 25-30 mph. Strong
LLJ will increase both warm air and moisture advection ahead of the
approaching boundary along with increased precipitation chances.
Showers and even a few embedded thunderstorms will increase through
the day with the best chance for widespread rain during the
afternoon and early evening. SPC day 3 outlook brings a Marginal
risk (1 out of 5) for severe storms into our southern counties
bordering TN. While there is going to be amble amounts of shear,
overall instability remains low for Sunday afternoon/evening likely
due to the cloud cover, temperatures in the 60s and dew points at or
slightly above 50. While not going to rule out some gusty
thunderstorms the overall severe threat remains low.
Rain will diminish late Sunday night into early Monday morning.
Total rainfall amounts will range between 0.50-1.00 inches with
little flooding issues.
A persistent northwest flow pattern sets up over the Ohio Valley for
most of next week. This will result in near normal temperatures for
Monday through Thursday and light precipitation on Tuesday, as a
weak impulse works through the northwest flow. Ridging will increase
over the region by the end of the week with temperatures warming
into the 70s. Could see an increased chance in precipitation as a
weak system works through Thursday night into Friday but overall
confidence is not high.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025
A cold front extends from MN/WI southwest through OK this afternoon.
A tightening pressure field between the cold front and high pressure
along the Gulf Coast is producing breezy SW winds this afternoon.
High clouds will continue to spread in from the west into the
evening hours. High confidence in VFR conditions in the near term.
Tonight, the cold front will continue southeast through the Great
Lakes, MS and OH Valleys. A 45+ kt LLJ will produce LLWS conditions,
especially between 03-10Z Saturday. Sfc winds will remain somewhat
breezy, veering westerly Saturday morning as the front sweeps
through. Dry weather appears likely, though a period of low-end VFR
ceilings is likely 12-18Z Sat at SDF/LEX. Cannot rule out a brief
MVFR ceiling, especially at LEX.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...EBW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 21, 3:23 PM EDT---------------
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