CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 4:22 AM EDT315
FXUS61 KCLE 200822
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
422 AM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east through the area today. High pressure
will briefly return on Friday, followed by a weak low pressure
system and cold front on Saturday. A stronger low pressure system
will track east through the Upper Great Lakes Sunday into Monday,
extending a cold front east across the area Sunday night. Lingering
troughing will persist across the Great Lakes Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Active weather is expected for the first half of the near term
period, with quieter weather to return by Friday.
For this morning, water vapor imagery reveals an impressive
upper-level trough gradually moving east across the Midwest,
with a 70 to 80-knot 700 mb jet contributing to continued waves
of moderate rain streaming northeastward through the area. This
narrow area of rain showers will gradually pivot east over the
next several hours, with a largely dry forecast expected by mid-
morning.
However, anticipating rain to return across the area by late
morning and early afternoon as a strong cold front pushes east
through the region. Precipitation will develop along and behind
the cold front, aided by an approaching TROWAL evident via
recent ALPW imagery. Colder air aloft will arrive behind the
front with temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s by
late Thursday afternoon and early evening, and eventually the
upper 20s around midnight. With the colder air aloft, rain will
transition to a rain/snow mix and eventually all snow by
Thursday evening, particularly across Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania where lake enhancement may allow snow to
linger into the early overnight hours. For the most part, snow
accumulations should be limited to less than 1 inch, though
can't rule out some higher 1 to 2-inch amounts across interior
portions of Northwest Pennsylvania.
High pressure will quickly build across the region on Friday,
with a return to above-average highs in the low to mid-50s under
plentiful sunshine.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An active weather pattern is in store during the short term as a
series of troughs cross the northern United States and Great Lakes
Region. The next trough will be on our doorstep Friday evening with
breezy southwest winds shifting to the northwest by Saturday as a
cold front pushes south across the area. While there is a chance of
precipitation on Friday night as the warm front lifts north and then
with the cold front pushing back south, coverage looks scattered and
generally light. Did raise lows on Friday night a couple degrees
given a southwesterly low level jet and warm advection for most of
the night. Post frontal temperatures on Saturday will will peak in
the 40s in the morning and then fall through the day, especially in
far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania where temperatures
will dip into the 30s late in the day. A few locations may see a
little snow mixing in Saturday afternoon before precipitation ends.
High pressure builds in Saturday night but is already departing to
the east on Sunday as another trough digs into the Upper Midwest and
closes off across the Upper Great Lakes Sunday night. Conditions are
likely to be dry through Sunday morning with rain spreading west to
east across the area as lift ramps up along the warm front Sunday
afternoon. This system will have more available moisture and qpf
looks to range from a quarter to a half inch. While the surface low
occludes over northern Lake Michigan, a cold front will wrap in from
the west Sunday evening with breezy winds and cold advection heading
into Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term starts off with falling temperatures again behind the
cold front on Monday. A closed upper level low will be located just
north of the area and the placement of the mid-level dry-slot will
be a factor in where any precipitation sets up. It seems worthy of a
chance of showers as the cold front pushes south and another
possible transition from rain to snow late in the day. The long term
looks to favor cooler conditions as we remain in an active northwest
flow pattern. Long range models do struggle with timing of the next
trough dropping into the Upper Midwest early next week which will
impact timing and coverage of precipitation. Due to the uncertainty,
the long range forecast has low chance pops Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures look to be slightly below normal in the low to mid
40s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Mainly VFR across the TAF sites early this morning with
deterioration to MVFR and perhaps pockets of IFR along and
behind a cold front later this morning and afternoon. A strong
gust front is currently moving east through the eastern TAF
sites early this morning. Anticipate a brief wind shift towards
the west to southwest at CAK/YNG/ERI with the gust front with
wind gusts ranging between 35 to 40 knots. Otherwise, a large
area of rain behind this gust front will gradually move east
through this morning, resulting in periodic MVFR vsbys.
Behind the cold front later this morning and afternoon, low-end
MVFR cigs will arrive from west to east, in addition to
scattered to widespread rain showers. Pockets of IFR cigs are
most likely across the central and eastern TAF sites, and can't
rule out brief IFR vsby drops as well, especially if some snow
can mix in with the rain in the afternoon into the early
evening. Conditions will begin to improve to VFR from west to
east by late evening into the early overnight period.
Apart from the gust front, winds are generally favoring a south
to southwest direction early this morning, 10 to 15 knots with
gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Winds will abruptly shift towards the
west and northwest behind a cold front late this morning and
afternoon, increasing to near 20 knots with gusts up to 30
knots.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain showers Friday night into
Saturday. Non-VFR likely in widespread rain late Sunday into
Monday. Non-VFR is possible in lingering rain and/or snow
showers Monday night.
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM Friday as low
pressure over Michigan departs to the northeast and pulls a strong
cold front across the area. Southwesterly winds of 20-25 knots will
veer to northwesterly tonight with waves building to 4 to 8 feet.
Conditions should improve quickly on Friday as a ridge extends north
across Lake Erie.
An active pattern continues into next week as southwest winds ramp
up to 20+ knots by Friday night as another trough approaches the
Great Lakes Region from the north. Winds will shift to the northwest
on Saturday as this system pulls another cold front south across the
lake. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed again for a
window of time from Friday night into Saturday evening where waves
linger the longest across the Central Basin and east to Erie PA.
Another fast moving low pressure system approaches the Great Lakes
from the west on Sunday with increasing southeast winds Sunday night
veering to westerly on Monday. This may warrant another Small Craft
Advisory.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...10
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 4:22 AM EDT---------------
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