JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 2:00 PM EDT958
FXUS63 KJKL 201800 AAB
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
200 PM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Much cooler air arrives for today, with showers for most
locations, probably changing to snow at higher elevations near
the Virginia border.
- Additional cold fronts are expected Friday night and Sunday
night, which will thwart any appreciable warm-ups. The late
weekend cold front should bring another round of showers and
possibly thunderstorms.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 150 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2025
Hourly grids have been freshened up based on recent observations
and radar trends. Showers have moved back into eastern KY/
redeveloped and with cold air advection and wraparound moisture
combined with the flow becoming more westerly as the afternoon
progresses for an upslope component, these should continue through
the afternoon, before gradually diminishing to more isolated light
showers or sprinkles in the evening.
UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2025
Refreshed hourly temperature, dewpoint and wind data with most
recent observations. No major changes to the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 459 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2025
Current temperatures at 09Z across the region range from the
lower 50s west of I-75, to the upper 50s near 60 out ahead of the
remnant convective line stemming from the upper level low over
northern Missouri/ southern Iowa. This remnant line of frontal
showers will continue moving across the CWA departing by mid-
morning across far eastern Kentucky. Temperatures by sunrise in a
few hours are forecasted in the mid to upper 40s. The high
temperature for today will likely occur around 8-10 AM where
minimal heating is expected. Temperatures will then fall through
the day. There will be a breif break in shower activity this
morning before post- frontal showers pick up to the west. These
showers will continue through the better part of this afternoon.
Winds will veer to a northwesterly wind through the evening with
gusts 20-30 mph in the afternoon. This shift in wind direction
will mark the start of advecting colder air into the region. With
continued cold air and advecting in, some areas mainly across the
southeastern high terrain will see a mix of rain and snow showers
on the tail end of this system as it moves off to the east. Light
snow accumulations will be possible, with little to no impacts
expected.
With high pressure moving into the area tonight under north winds
and clearing skies, temperatures will drop considerably, likely
falling into the low to mid 20s in valleys, and mid to upper 20s
along ridge tops. Frost is expected to develop overnight, which may
damage any uncovered plants or sensitive vegetation entering the
growing season.
A ridge of high pressure continues to move in Friday, leading to
mostly sunny skies in the morning dry conditions. Some clouds may
begin to increase heading later into the afternoon hours. Highs are
forecasted in the mid to upper 50s, about 5 degrees below seasonal
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2025
Weak ridging at the surface and aloft will be departing to the
east on Friday evening. A shortwave trough will move east over the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Friday night and early Saturday, with
an associated surface cold front passing southeast through our
area. Moisture will be limited and the best upper level support
will be to our north, so nothing more than clouds are forecast for
our area. Transient surface high pressure then passes over from
west to east late Saturday and Saturday night, bringing fair
weather.
A more potent shortwave trough is expected to develop to a closed
low as it move eastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes
Saturday night through Sunday night. This will support a more
substantial surface system which will initially bring us warm air
advection Saturday night and Sunday. A bit more moisture should
get pulled northeast in the warm air advection this time around so
that showers develop along and ahead of the system's cold front.
The showers are expected to arrive here from the northwest late
Sunday and pass through Sunday night. The GFS suggests weak
instability deep enough for a potential of thunderstorms, and a
slight chance has been included. Latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF
have a faster departure, and Monday's forecast is now dry as
surface high pressure builds in from the west beneath a broad
upper trough.
Weak waves aloft moving through the upper trough could bring
showers or light rain at times Tuesday through Wednesday. However,
the features are rather small and weak, and models are having a
difficult time resolving them. As a result, the details are
changing run to run and there is low confidence for
timing/location of any resulting precip. Our forecast is
broadbrushed with slight chance to low chance POPs.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2025
Wraparound moisture and cold air advection along with passing upper
level disturbance has brought a return of light showers and a
mixture of MVFR and VFR ceilings to the region. This second round
of showers was already affecting JKL, LOZ, SME, and SYM at
issuance time and will near SJS within the first hour or two of
the period. Ceilings and perhaps visibility into MVFR or IFR
ranges are expected as these pass with an overall trend to
prevailing MVFR areawide through 21Z. Between 00Z and 06Z, clouds
should thin from west to east as high pressure builds into the
region with VFR developing. Winds will initially be west at around
generally 10 to 15KT with gusts as high as 20 to 25KT and become
more northwesterly from about 20Z onward. Winds should remain
northwest from 00Z to 06Z, but gradually slacken and then become
variable at 5KT or less through 15Z, before trending west
southwest to southwest at 10KT or less to end the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 2:00 PM EDT---------------
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