CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 19, 1:49 AM EDT011
FXUS61 KCLE 190549
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
149 AM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge exits slowly eastward from our region
through Wednesday as a potent low moves east-northeastward from
eastern Colorado toward southern Lake Michigan. During Wednesday
night, the low will move farther northeastward toward Georgian
Bay as the trailing cold front and associated trough sweep
eastward through our region. Behind the cold front and trough, a
ridge builds gradually from the north-central United States
through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Forecast remains on track - No changes needed.
Previous Discussion...
Fair and unusually-mild weather is expected through sunset
Wednesday evening as our region remains along the western flank
of a ridge at the surface and aloft, the ridge axis drifts
E'ward, away from the spine of the Appalachians and the Atlantic
seaboard of the United States, and stabilizing subsidence
impacts our CWA. Simultaneously, a shortwave trough moves from
the Four Corners region and vicinity to the Lower MO River
Valley and vicinity. The attendant surface low is expected to
deepen as it remains downstream of the shortwave trough axis and
wobbles ENE'ward from eastern CO toward southern Lake MI.
Accordingly, the MSLP gradient tightens over our CWA.
Tonight's lows are expected to reach the mid 40's to 50F in NW
PA and mainly the upper 40's to mid 50's in northern OH around
daybreak Wednesday. During the day on Wednesday, intervals of
sunshine and continued low-level WAA are still expected to
allow late afternoon highs to reach the upper 60's to lower 70's
in northern OH and NW PA. Diurnal convective mixing of the
boundary layer tapping into stronger flow aloft is expected to
contribute to S'erly surface gusts peaking in the 30 to 40 mph
range late Wednesday morning through early evening. Fire
weather concerns still exist during the afternoon through early
evening, when the aforementioned surface gusts are expected to
coincide with minimum RH values near 25% to 30% roughly along
and east of I-71. However, vegetation moisture is still
relatively-high from recent precip. Therefore, forecast
confidence in the need for a Red Flag Warning remains low.
Cyclonic SW'erly flow aloft resides over our region Wednesday
night as the shortwave trough moves NE'ward from near the Lower
MO River Valley and vicinity toward MI and vicinity. At the
surface, a trough overspreads our region from the west as the
aforementioned surface low moves farther NE'ward to near
Georgian Bay and continues to deepen as it remains downstream of
the shortwave trough axis. The low's trailing cold front is
expected to sweep E'ward through our CWA during the predawn
hours of Thursday morning. A tight MSLP gradient and mechanical
mixing of the boundary layer amidst low-level winds increasing
with height are expected to allow S'erly surface winds in the
warm sector and SW'erly surface winds in the cold sector to gust
up to about 25 to 35 mph. Moistening isentropic ascent aloft,
ahead of the shortwave trough axis, and low-level convergence/moist
ascent along the cold front are expected to allow scattered to
widespread rain showers to impact our region late Wednesday
evening through daybreak Thursday. Very weak (i.e. less than 100
J/kg) and primarily elevated instability is expected amidst
strong deep layer bulk shear in the warm sector. Therefore,
thunderstorms are not expected and it is very likely showers
will not produce damaging wind gusts.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Post frontal surface trough in sync with the upper level trough axis
swings through, completing the trek into cold air advection for the
CWA. Temperatures likely to be falling through the day, and showers
with the forcing from those two features become a rain/snow shower
mix heading through Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. The
whole system is quite progressive, however, and high pressure
influences from the south will be nudging in Thursday night, and do
not expect a lot of lingering precipitation, nor lake enhancement,
and have any low end POPs remaining end prior to 06Z Friday. 850mb
temperatures down to the -10C range Thursday night, but quickly back
to the beginnings of warm air advection both aloft and at the
surface heading into the Friday afternoon time frame and surface
winds becoming southwesterly once again. This is why temperatures,
while significantly cooler than mid week, may not end up below
normal for the Friday time frame, remaining slightly above
normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
In the meantime, an upper level low swinging around the southern end
of Hudson Bay and another less amplified axis track very quickly
into the region for the Friday night period and into the long term.
Low end POPs enter the CWA again prior to 12Z Saturday. The cold
front associated with these features will likely be just on the
doorstep of the CWA around 12Z Saturday. As the upper trough axis
over the Mississippi Valley and the closed low south of Hudson Bay
move into the Great Lakes, expecting a merger, and the showers to
become more organized and greater in coverage as they track through
the CWA, in the 06-18Z Saturday range. Again, the synoptic pattern
is very progressive, and expect this system to move quickly through
as well with high pressure in its wake. With the merging of the
upper level systems, more cold air advection takes 850mb
temperatures back down, again, into the -10C range Saturday night.
Back to zonal flow, and then another cold front Sunday night into
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR across the TAF sites early this morning with primarily VFR
to persist through the TAF period. Non-VFR will become possible
across the western TAF sites (TOL/FDY) later this evening,
associated with a convective line of showers and perhaps some
embedded thunder. Could see brief wind gusts in excess of 40
knots with this line. The line should gradually weaken as it
moves east, with thunder chances becoming less likely, thus the
lower confidence and wind gust potential at CLE from 7Z to 10Z.
Still dealing with some LLWS early this morning as the latest
VWP from CLE indicates 45 to 50-knot 210-direction winds at
2kft. Surface winds will increase out of the south later this
morning and afternoon, around 20 knots with periodic gusts of 30
to perhaps 35 knots at times. Another brief period of LLWS is
possible at CAK/YNG later this evening as surface winds decrease
and favor a slight south-southeast direction.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in a line of rain showers Wednesday
night into Thursday morning across the central and eastern TAF
sites. Non-VFR more likely Thursday afternoon and evening as
rain transitions to snow. Non-VFR may return in rain showers on
Saturday. Non-VFR likely to return in widespread rain late
Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly winds increase tonight to 10-15 kts, and will be
getting close to Small Craft Advisory criteria on Wednesday as
they increase to around 20 kts for the western half of Lake
Erie, and wave heights increasing rapidly away from shore. Cold
front passes Wednesday night, but wind directions only change
from south to southwesterly continuing at around 20 kts. Winds
eventually turn northwesterly Thursday, and onshore flow brings
wave heights to 4-6 ft for the central and eastern basins into
Thursday night. As the overall weather pattern continues its
quick changes, southwesterly winds return once again for Friday
at 10-20 kts.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...26
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 19, 1:49 AM EDT---------------
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