JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 17, 10:35 PM EDT308
FXUS63 KJKL 180235 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1035 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After the below normal temperatures of today, highs around 15
degrees above normal return for Tuesday and Wednesday.
- A mid-week storm system will bring a renewed chance of showers
and thunderstorms along with a sharp temperature drop.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2025
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. Did also tweak
some point low temperatures by dawn, Tuesday. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2025
23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in starting to exert control
of the weather over eastern Kentucky. This is working to settle
the winds and has made for mostly clear skies. Currently
temperatures are running in the upper 40s to low 50s. Meanwhile,
amid light winds, dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper
20s. Have updated the forecast mainly to adjust the Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 258 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2025
An area of surface high pressure will build east tonight and
continue so through the period, as there is good agreement on mid-
level height rises building northward. This will strengthen a
pressure gradient and surface return flow will subsequently increase
out of the south. This afternoon dewpoints have been in the upper
20s. This will allow the overnight lows to drop in the valleys, as
we clear out by this evening. Overall this will lead to upper 20s to
lower 30s in the valleys and mid to upper 30s on the ridges. This is
closer to the tenth percentile of the NBM for lows in the valleys.
Tuesday, we will see clear skies and dry weather in place. There
will be the potential for more mixing, with gusty winds in the 15-20
mph range this afternoon. This drier weather will also lead to
afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s, which leaned a little higher
than the NBM given that some downslope flow may also help
overachieve highs. Tuesday night, a few more clouds are expected to
advect eastward ahead of the next storm system. This will limit the
ridge/valley temperature splits some, but some of the far eastern
Kentucky deeper valleys will still see some mid 30s if not even some
lower 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2025
The period will start Wednesday with an incoming storm system.
Conditions will remain dry throughout the day, as a strong upper
level and surface low pressure system continue to deepen across the
Upper Mississippi Valley and Mid-west by the afternoon. With
deepening SW flow across the region, expect an influx of both WAA
and moisture throughout the day. Similar to Tuesday, highs on
Wednesday will peak in the mid 70s for most locations, however
humidity levels will be higher. As the system continues to shift
northeast into the overnight, the associated cold front is poised to
quickly traverse the state. Models are in fairly good agreement of
the band of precip that will move through the state along the front,
mainly impacting the JKL CWA during the overnight Wednesday into
Thursday morning. Even once the front moves through, the actual
upper level trough will pass through during the day Thursday. With
adequate moisture remaining across the region, and strong lift, this
will create a continued source of precip through much of the day
across a majority of the state, including the JKL CWA.
As far as concernable weather with this system, it seems that the
system moving through more during the overnight hours Wednesday
night will help alleviate any instability concerns. The models are
trending away from thunder chances, keeping it confined to the
evening hours (generally west of I-75). The influx of cold air
behind this system is no joke, however, as strong NW flow takes hold
after the front through. Despite the warm highs on Wednesday,
overnight lows Wednesday night will drop into the upper 30s and 40s,
then will only recover a few degrees during the day Thursday (highs
in the 40s to low 50s). With such a strong gradient in temperatures,
it's also not a surprise that there is a strong pressure gradient.
Therefore, as this system approaches on Wednesday, models are in
good agreement that strong SW flow will be in place from the upper
levels all the way down to the surface. Daytime mixing will help to
mix down some of these higher gusts. As a result, blended towards
the higher NBM percentiles for winds, increasing both the
predominate winds and gusts by about 20 to 25% from what the regular
NBM was giving. These too should also begin to diminish once the
front passes through Wednesday night, but could remain breezy even
into the day Thursday, before the system fully exits to the east
Thursday night.
Speaking of Thursday night, this could be one of the colder nights,
as CAA continues to infiltrate the region, and high pressure moves
overhead, allowing for strong subsidence. Temperatures are expected
to fall well below freezing in most places, with a decent
ridge/valley split in temperatures for the deeper valleys, where mid
20s are likely on tap. There is a small chance for some lingering
moisture in the high terrain into Thursday evening. If this occurs,
it is likely that any remaining rain could transition to snow in
these locations. As of now the amounts are quite low and
insignificant. The bigger concern may be wet surfaces across the CWA
which freeze overnight, especially those that are untreated.
High pressure will remain in place through the day Friday, allowing
for clearing skies, increased sun shine, and therefore also
increased temperatures - rebounding into the mid and upper 50s for
highs. Unfortunately this dry weather will be more of a break than
the predominate feature moving forward. Models are still pointing at
another system developing to our west late Friday, and moving into
the Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday. In fact, models actually
had better agreement yesterday compared to the solutions today, but
both the GFS and ECMWF do still show impacts to the CWA heading into
the day Saturday. Again, it will be quite cool temperature-wise
heading into Saturday, so not expecting enough instability to
promote severe weather activity, but will also be warm enough to be
all rain instead of snow. There is at least the agreement that it
should also be a fast moving system, exiting again by Saturday
evening. Another round of high pressure is then on tap for Saturday
night, as is another rush of CAA behind the passing system, with
lows back down to the 30s across the area (coldest in the valleys).
Then as we head into the second half of the weekend, models are
pointing at yet another system taking shape to our west, and moving
eastward towards the Ohio Valley overnight. There is still quite
a few differences in the model solutions, but this does look to be
a more potent system, with a deepening upper level and surface
low, and a defined cold front and warm front structure. However,
the exact strength and location are still not agreed upon, and
therefore kept with the NBM blended solution not knowing which one
will end up panning out. At the least we can expect some rain
late Sunday into Monday as this system moves through. However,
timing, amounts, and instability parameters are likely to change
in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2025
VFR conditions abound for eastern Kentucky will will stay that
way for the remainder of the period. As high pressure pushes east
over the area winds will be light overnight and then pick up a bit
from the south at 5 to 10 kts on Tuesday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...DJ/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 17, 10:35 PM EDT---------------
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