IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 16, 11:35 PM EDT177
FXUS63 KIND 170335
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1135 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Clearing and cold overnight with sub-freezing temperatures.
- Warming trend with dry conditions Monday through Tuesday night.
- Chances for rain Wednesday and Thursday, isolated thunderstorms
on Wednesday.
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Cold advection and weak upper energy continue to squeeze out some
isolated to scattered light rain/snow showers. Extended into later
this evening the low PoPs across the eastern half or so of the
forecast area.
Meanwhile, the clearing line behind the upper forcing has moved into
the southwest forecast area and is near the Indiana/Illinois border
farther north. Clouds will continue to clear from the west as the
system slowly exits. Adjusted sky cover as needed based on latest
trends seen on satellite.
Bumped down low temperatures some based on latest temperature trends
seen in observations locally and upstream. Lows still look to be in
the middle and upper 20s most areas. Favored cold areas in the west
may get a little cooler as winds decrease overnight. Will continue
to monitor.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
An abrupt return to winter this afternoon as the region resides
within the backwash of the storm system of the last few days. A
cloudy...damp and dreary day with periodic light showers and
occasionally snowflakes mixing in as well with an upper level trough
overhead. 18Z temperatures were now in the 30s across the entire
area with a brisk westerly wind to boot.
The upper trough will slowly move east through this evening with the
chances for light precipitation continuing and increasingly in the
form of snow by early evening. The departure of the upper trough to
the east overnight will promote clearing from the west by daybreak
and set the stage for a seasonable day Monday with ridging aloft
building in.
Rest of the Afternoon and Evening
Precipitation has become lighter and more scattered since earlier
today and will see this persist into the evening focused especially
across the northeast half of the forecast area. Have seen snow mix
in at times already especially across the northern half of the
Wabash Valley. As progressive colder air advects in over the next
few hours...should see snowflakes increasingly mix in.
For the evening...a secondary upper wave will pivot through as low
level flow briefly veers to a more northwesterly direction. This may
be just enough to generate subtle influence from Lake Michigan with
flurries and or light snow showers through the mid to late evening
that could slip into northeast portions of the forecast area.
Considering warm ground temps...marginal air temps and the
expectation of very light rates...there will not be any impacts.
Overnight through Monday
Low level winds will back and weaken with the approach of ridging
aloft after midnight with lower stratus diminishing in coverage from
west to east overnight. The ridge will track across the region
through the first half of the day Monday with sunshine and generally
light flow. Low pressure will track into the upper Midwest by late
day and help to create a tighter pressure gradient with the
departing high pressure ridge to the east by the afternoon. Winds
will back to southerly as a result and could occasionally gust late
in the day.
Temps...temperatures will continue to slide through the rest of the
afternoon eventually settling in the upper 20s for lows tonight.
After the chilly start...a pleasant day on tap for Monday with low
level thermals supporting highs in the low to mid 50s...a few
degrees above normal for mid March.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Broad zonal ridging will slowly cross the central CONUS through the
long term's first third...first courtesy of moderating return flow
out of subtropical high pressure near the Gulf coast...and then from
the increasing gradient ahead of a potent and strengthening cyclone,
which should be crossing southern Iowa Wednesday morning. Moderate
to robust south-southwesterly breezes will facilitate a 30-degree or
so diurnal rebound Tuesday with most locations reaching the upper
60s to around 70F.
Above normal readings will continue into Wednesday as the strong
storm system passes well to our north...with its warm sector brining
higher POPs for rain showers but lesser certainty in potential for
even moderate rainfall as associated forcing lifts northward. Cannot
rule out a few at least briefly heavier showers, especially north of
I-70...yet confidence so far low in any organized thunder. Post-
frontal, slightly below-normal chill should be brief in the Thursday
to Thursday night period when lingering low-POP showers will
probably include some no-impact light wet snow.
The late week/weekend will continue the overall progressive/zonal
pattern with the next short wave hosting a noticeably weaker weather
system. Precipitation chances should be low with all-rain so far
appearing to be the most probable p-type. Overall increased heights
will promote a modest moderation from near to slightly above normal
levels with low 60s expected to return by the end of the long term.
The normal max/min at Indianapolis through the long term will climb
from 53/34 to 55/35.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1135 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Impacts:
- Non-convective LLWS after 02z-04z Tuesday
Discussion:
Skies will clear tonight as a surface ridge moves overhead. VFR
flying conditions are expected with good confidence. Winds will
switch to the south and increase to 10 knots with gusts to near 20
knots after 17z-19z.
A low level jet will move in from the northwest Monday night and
result in some non-convective LLWS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...MK
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 16, 11:35 PM EDT---------------
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