LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 16, 7:43 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...325
FXUS63 KLMK 162343
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
743 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Showers or drizzle tapering off by early this evening.
* Another breezy system moves through the region midweek, but with
less moisture to work with.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Sfc cold front and associated showers finally pushing their way
through the Bluegrass region, with the cold pool aloft and enough
trapped moisture sustaining drizzle as far west as Corydon and
Brandenburg. Held on to some low POPs through late afternoon to
account for that, but it most likely won't be measurable before it
ends.
Upper trof passes around midnight, but clouds will hang on for much
of the overnight, even a little past daybreak in the Bluegrass
region. If clearing happens more quickly, valley or river fog will
be on the table given the damp ground. Mostly sunny skies for the
balance of Monday, with temps near climo if not just slightly below.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Broad trough axis currently over the region and running from the
Great Lakes to the Gulf will shift east, allowing us to move into a
quieter weather period for at least Tuesday and possibly even dry
for most of Wednesday. Another disturbance approaches midweek and
then another one for the beginning of the weekend and another Sunday
night. That midweek system has more potential for some gusty
gradient winds, but not as big a threat for severe weather. Also not
as much moisture to work with given its quick movement and lack of
meridional pull. Still some gusty showers with maybe an isolated
rumble of thunder are forecast. Cold upper air in its wake may allow
for a few more showers into Thursday. The Saturday system looks to
be a quick mover as well.
Temperatures will be near normal in the wake of each system this
period, but quickly moderate to above normal. So Tuesday morning
should be in the upper 30s to low 40s for most, but then quickly get
to around 70 in the afternoon. Thursday night could be a touch below
normal, with readings below the freezing mark for most of the
region, save for some urban areas.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 743 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
MVFR ceilings expected to persist for some time at SDF/LEX/RGA,
however HNB/BWG should prevail VFR from here forward. SDF should
clear to VFR around Midnight, with LEX/RGA likely holding onto MVFR
until just before daybreak. Steady to occasionally gusty winds will
trend lighter tonight, and then go light and variable. Mostly clear
and VFR conditions persist into Monday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 16, 7:43 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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