PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 12, 12:48 AM EDT125
FXUS61 KPBZ 120448 AAB
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1248 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm conditions prevail through Friday. Rain returns
this weekend, with the threat of severe weather. A brief
cooldown is favored to begin next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather continues
-------------------------------------------------------------------
No changes to the overnight period.
The weak and dry cold front, which passed through the region
last evening, will slowly shift northward today. Even with the
front returning as a warm front, expect its intrusion to be dry
as well. Conditions will remain very dry with just passing mid
clouds possible this afternoon. How far north the front makes
it, will be instrumental for high temperatures today.
Expect to see a wide range of highs from north to south.
Temperatures across the northern border will likely remain in
the low 50s, while temperatures near the southern border should
push into the low to mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Above average temperatures and continued mainly dry.
- Low chance for showers in the ridges Thursday afternoon.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
There is increasing, but still low confidence in the presence
of a passing shortwave in the mid-level flow tonight into
Thursday, which will push the surface boundary south. The
highest chances of rain will sit mostly in the ridges Thursday
afternoon (20%). Otherwise, conditions will continue to remain
dry with above average temperatures. Marginal fire weather
concerns prevail for the daytime hours.
Forecast confidence increases yet again Friday with the
boundary pushing back northward through the area. It is
beginning to appear that Friday may be the warmest day of the
period with increasing sunshine and temperatures up to 30
degrees above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Weekend severe weather potential and flooding potential.
- A brief cooldown Monday, with a warmup into mid-week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
There is increasing confidence in the next disturbance passing
through this weekend. The most likely timing remains, Saturday
for the warm front, with a strong pressure gradient Saturday
afternoon with enhanced low level flow in the warm sector. This
will need to continue to be monitored for severe development,
with ensemble plumes fairly confident on buoyancy, but unsure on
just how much. This might suggest a primary threat of damaging
winds. The main cold front is most likely to pass late Saturday
into early Sunday. Rainfall amounts are quite variable, between
0.5 and 1.5 inches between the 25th and 75th percentile.
Marginal flooding conditions are also possible as the cold front
slowly moves through. Synoptic winds are also forecast at 20 to
30 mph (25th to 75th percentile).
Behind the cold front, a brief cool down to near-normal is
expected with moderate confidence, followed by a warm-up back
above normal by mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front is currently tracking in the vicinity of PIT/AGC
at 21Z. Winds will continue to shift for HLG, MGW, and LBE from
the southwest/west to the northwest over the next 2-4 hours.
Clear conditions are expected during the overnight hours with
sufficient dry air aloft.
Patchy stratocu and speed sheer induced alto decks are possible
overnight into Wednesday as the boundary stalls near I-70.
Greater moisture convergence/overrunning as the boundary lifts
northward Wednesday midday will lead to greater likelihood
(40-70% probability) of MVFR cigs at FKL/DUJ, with most other
terminals experiencing near to sub 5kft cigs.
Outlook...
Cloud and cig improvement will occur Wednesday afternoon and
evening as the warm front lifts northward. There is potential
that it stalls near FKL/DUJ into Thursday as flow remains
easterly and regenerate low VFR/high MVFR cigs.
Otherwise, VFR is favored through early Saturday under the
influence of high pressure with surface wind quickly returning
to a predominant and occasionally gusty SW flow.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22/Milcarek
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22/Milcarek
LONG TERM...Milcarek
AVIATION...Hefferan/Frazier
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 12, 12:48 AM EDT---------------
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