JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 8, 10:11 AM EST747
FXUS63 KJKL 081511
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1011 AM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A warming trend begins Sunday through Tuesday, with well above
normal temperatures expected Tuesday through Friday of next
week.
- Low relative humidity and an increase in winds could result in
near critical fire weather Tuesday and/or Wednesday afternoons.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
Made minor updates to PoPs and Sky grids based on current
satellite, radar, and model trends. Otherwise, there were no major
changes to the grids through the remainder of the Today period.
UPDATE Issued at 635 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
Temperatures are dropping off across eastern Kentucky this
morning as a cold front slices through the area with scattered
showers. Temperatures range from the mid 30s north of I-64 to the
mid 50s far southeast at update issuance. While forecast is
largely on track, the hourly Temperature, PoP, and Sky cover
trends were tailored to capture latest obs/trends/guidance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
An area of scattered to numerous rain showers is departing to the
east as a cold front sags south of the I-64 corridor. North of the
boundary, temperatures are in the upper 30s to lower 40s but as
warm as the mid to upper 50s in the Cumberland River Basin. The
clipper low responsible for the precipitation is transitioning
from an old low center over the Mid-Ohio Valley to a new low
center over the Shenandoah Valley. Aloft, 500H troughing is in
place over the Northeast CONUS with an embedded shortwave
trough/vort lobe settling over the Ohio Valley.
As that shortwave aloft and the associated cold front at the
surface sag south, showers can be expected to linger, most
notably north of US-421. Additional rainfall amounts in most
locales should be a five hundredths or less. The last rain showers
may end as a few flakes near/east of US-23 late this morning. Low
clouds will be stubborn through midday behind the front before
gradually drying up from the northwest this afternoon as drier air
filters into eastern Kentucky. Today will be seasonably cool with
high temperatures in the upper 40s north to mid 50s south.
Heights rise this evening as surface high pressure sets up over the
Lower Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, mid-high clouds will begin
streaming in from the southwest as a closed 500H low ejects out
onto the Texas Plains. Those clouds will continue to stream in and
thicken somewhat tonight/early Sunday, especially near the
Tennessee state line, as the closed low pivots into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. While very dry air at the low-levels should
inhibit any rainfall from reaching the ground late tonight, the
cloud cover should mute, to some degree, what would otherwise be a
substantial ridge-valley temperature split. Look for low
temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s overnight. As the air mass
moderates, look for warmer temperatures rising into the upper 50s
to lower 60s on Sunday under sunshine filtered by a thinning mid-
high cloud deck.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 404 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
The forecast period begins with a system that's forecast to remain
south of the area. This more and more southerly trend has been seen
in the models over the last several nights and it appears that that
trend will come to fruition and Saturday night through the middle
of next week will feature surface high pressure. Courtesy of the
surface high, temperatures will begin to warm across the area with
highs topping out in the low to mid-70s for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Also, due to the dry airmass in place, widespread
drying can and will take place which could lead to a resurgence of
localized fire weather concerns for Tuesday and Wednesday. Since
the airmass continues to show the source region of the dry air
from the Desert Southwest, have continued to use the 10th
percentile NBM for the Tds from the start of the period through
midweek when a system approaches the area and more Gulf of America
moisture is advected into the region.
Models continue to struggle with a potential system
for the latter end of next week. As we approach this event, model
consensus has continued to degrade to now the GFS and ECMWF aren't
in agreement but have the forecast to the NBM which really lends
itself to a weak system moving through the area beginning late
Wednesday night and ejecting out of the area by early Thursday
night. Overall PoP chances have continued to trend downward and now
the forecast area is forecast to see roughly 30 to 40% chance of
rain with this system before it exits and surface high pressure
builds back into the region.
While this scenario is outside the forecast window, forecast trends
continue to hint at a solution where widespread heavy rain will
impact the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. This system is expected
to develop toward the end of the forecast window and move toward the
Commonwealth for late Saturday into Sunday. While details are nearly
impossible to hammer out at this time, the trends for heavy rain are
there and could lead to instances of possible hydro issues.
Overall the period will feature a weak system moving to the south of
the area but high pressure will remain supreme leading to a warming
temperature trend for most of next week. A second, albeit trending
weaker, system is forecast to impact the region for the middle of
next week and possibly another strong system moving into the region
for next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
Leftover showers will depart over the next few hours as a low,
mainly MVFR cloud deck drops into eastern Kentucky behind a cold
front. Winds are veering to the north behind the front, generally
at ~5 to 10 kts with some locally stronger gusts. VFR conditions
should be re-established late this morning and afternoon as
lingering low-level moisture thins from the northwest.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 8, 10:11 AM EST---------------
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