ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 7, 12:55 PM EST373
FXUS61 KILN 071755
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1255 PM EST Fri Mar 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure to track from the Central Plains into the
Mississippi Valley today and across the Ohio Valley tonight.
This system will offer a chance of precipitation. High pressure
will return this weekend into early next week bringing dry
weather and a warming trend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No significant changes made with the morning update. Increasing
clouds will continue in the warm air advection aloft ahead of a
disturbance to our west. Have trimmed back PoPs a bit in the
west based on radar and observational trends. Otherwise, still
on track for light precipitation beginning this afternoon
across west-central Ohio, expanding across our northern
counties before sliding south this evening. P-type will be
mostly rain, though can't rule out a rain-snow mix in the far
north.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Progressive surface low to track east from the Mid MS Valley
this evening across the Ohio Valley overnight.
Precipitation across the far north early this evening will
shift south tonight as the sheared out mid level shortwave and
associated weak surface low track thru the Ohio Valley. As
low level CAA develops the northern periphery of the
precipitation shield looks to be cold enough to support a
chance for a rain/snow mix changing to snow. Pcpn will be light
with the potential for a dusting -- mainly on grassy areas.
Lows will range from the mid 20s across the north to the mid
30s in the south.
Mid level confluent region and surface high pressure to build
into the area Saturday. Residual pcpn across the southeast to
end early with clouds giving way to increasing sunshine. High
temperatures to range from near 40 north to the upper 40s south.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Very quiet long term pattern with dry conditions expected from
Saturday night through the day on Wednesday. There will be a
warming trend through most of this time with above normal
temperatures for the long term. Winds will be gusty with wind gusts
30 to 35 mph on Tuesday.
There are some continued indications of a mid week system and
rainfall chances across the region. There are still timing and
placement uncertainties with this system due to model run to run
variability. Due to this limited most locations to just a chance of
precipitation. Even with this system, expect temperatures to
continue to be above normal for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface low pressure will track through the Ohio Valley tonight.
Rain will develop across the terminals, mainly after 00Z.
Ceilings and visibility will decrease as light precipitation
continues and cold air wraps into the system. May see a bit of
light snow mix in at the Dayton and Columbus sites. Still quite
a bit of uncertainty as to whether cigs/vis will drop to IFR
levels. Winds will become northerly tonight and stay that
direction as precipitation ends by morning.
High pressure will begin to build back into the region Saturday,
allowing ceilings to scatter out by midday.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather impacts are expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 7, 12:55 PM EST---------------
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