PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 7, 9:56 PM EST908
FXUS61 KPBZ 080256 AAA
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
956 PM EST Fri Mar 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure keep snow across the region before tapering off
from west to east overnight. Dry weather returns by midday
Saturday. Quiet weather and a warm up is then likely into next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Snow continues before tapering off overnight
- Upslope flow provides some minor accumulation in the ridges
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The latest meso analysis shows the frontogenesis at 850mb
weakening. Radar also shows the back edge of the heavier band
working through the area. A surface low was centered across IN
and KY, with an upper trough axis across eastern OH. Expect snow
to continue through the rest of the evening as these systems
complete their passage, though snowfall rates will not be as
efficient as they were earlier under the frontogenesis.
Ascent will wane from NW-SE after midnight, though some upslope
component will keep snow in the ridges. Additional accumulation
should be an inch or less for most areas, with one to three in
the ridges.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Quiet weather this weekend with warming temperatures Sunday
--------------------------------------------------------------------
By 12Z Saturday, any remaining snow will likely be confined to areas
near/south of the Mason-Dixon Line, as drier air builds from the
north and as the flat mid-level wave/vorticity lobe dips to the
south and east. As surface ridging crosses the region, a mostly
clear sky and quiet weather is expected for Saturday afternoon
and night, with generally below-normal temperatures forecast.
A shortwave passage with limited moisture is still forecast for
Sunday. Still cannot totally rule out an isolated shower or two,
but probabilities remain low enough to preclude mention. The main
impact will likely be an increase in cloud cover. Temperatures will
moderate to near or just above normal levels, with widespread
readings in the 40s and Warm advection on Sunday will push area
temperatures a bit above average - chances of max temperatures at or
above 50 degrees are 50 to 80 percent near and south of Pittsburgh
away from the ridges.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Quiet weather through midweek with a warming trend expected
- Next chance of rain arrives by Thursday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Little change to sensible weather expectations for the Monday
through Wednesday period, as there remains high confidence in dry
weather and a warming trend as upper ridging crosses the Ohio
Valley. Again, the main uncertainty is exactly how warm temperatures
get, which will depend on factors such as 500mb heights, cloud
cover, and humidity levels. Still, high temperatures well into the
60s are a good bet by Tuesday/Wednesday, especially south of
Pittsburgh.
The next chance of precipitation is still slated to arrive by
Wednesday night or Thursday as a surface low potentially crosses the
eastern Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley. Model clusters show some
uncertainty regarding the depth and track of the associated 500mb
trough, with tracks ranging from the Middle Ohio Valley to the deep
south. In any case, precip type is still confidently forecast as
rain at this distance. Dry weather and high pressure may then return
by Friday, with a frontal passage likely to not prevent temperatures
from remaining above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Snow has overspread the region quickly, riding along the nose of
850mb frontogenesis. At this time ZZV finds itself removed from the
best forcing and remains VFR. Snow continues to spread from W to E.
Warmer initial temperatures have helped MGW start as rain with
improved VIS, but a period of wet bulbing will help turn that over
to snow and reduce VIS quickly.
MVFR to IFR restrictions are likely to continue through tonight.
Bursts of heavier snow remain possible and VIS could be reduced
below 1SM as already observed in OH. Probabilities of VIS less than
1SM are highest (>60%) at BVI/FKL/DUJ between 02-08z. After this
probabilities reduce at all ports as forcing begins to sputter. Snow
begins to shut off between 06-12z.
With advancing dry air from the north between 10Z to 14Z Saturday,
CIGs will likely increase from MVFR to VFR. Winds will be directed
out of the northwest; gusts Saturday could range from 15kts to
20kts.
Outlook...
A subtle passing shortwave may briefly bring restrictions
back to FKL/DUJ early Sunday but VFR is expected at all other
terminals through early next week.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WM/CL
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...AK
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 7, 9:56 PM EST---------------
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