ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 6, 3:20 PM EST464
FXUS61 KILN 062020
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
320 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide mostly clear skies and dry weather
for tonight into early Friday. Low pressure will track from the
Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night,
offering our next chance of precipitation. High pressure will
return from this weekend into early next week bringing a warming
trend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure moving through the southeast states will build
across the Ohio Valley tonight. This will result in mostly clear
skies and decreasing winds through the period. Low temperatures
will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A northern stream shortwave, quickly followed by a weakness in
the southern stream, will progress across the Ohio Valley Friday
into Friday night. The northern stream energy will bring
increasing clouds and a chance of rain, mostly north of
Interstate 70, Friday afternoon. Highs temperatures will be
limited to the lower to middle 40s across the north, while
reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s across the south.
The precipitation will then shift south Friday night as the
southern stream shortwave moves across the Ohio Valley into the
central Appalachians. Can't rule out a dusting of snow across
our northern counties on the back side of the system as it
exits to the east early Saturday morning. Lows will range from
the mid 20s across the north to the mid 30s in the south.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Northwest flow aloft to start the period will become more zonal
during the early to middle part of the week. A closed low is
forecast to open up as it emerges from the southern Plains and
tracks across the southeast on Thursday. At the surface, high
pressure will predominate for the weekend into Monday. As the high
moves off, southerly flow will allow for a substantial warm up with
temperatures becoming 15 to 20 degrees above normal Tuesday and
Wednesday. Surface low associated with the upper system passing
south of the area may bring some rain by Thursday, but there is some
uncertainty on exact track and timing.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build into the region early in the
period, providing VFR conditions by around 20Z. Winds will also
decrease through the evening as the pressure gradient relaxes.
Mid and high clouds will begin to increase again Friday morning
in advance of the next disturbance located over the middle
Mississippi River Valley... though aviation impacts are likely
to hold off until after this TAF period.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Friday night into
Saturday morning.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 6, 3:20 PM EST---------------
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