LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 8, 3:51 AM EST138
FXUS63 KLMK 080851
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
351 AM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Patches of light rain or drizzle ending this morning.
* Warming trend begins Sunday and continues into next week. Highs in
the 60s on Monday, low 70s on Tuesday, and mid 70s on Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 350 AM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
An area of surface low pressure is moving through the center of our
CWA at this hour, and will continue to slide ESE through the
morning. Will have a few lingering light showers through the pre-
dawn hours, but overall expect a drying trend for our eastern CWA by
the time the sun comes up. Winds sharply shift to a N component
behind the trailing cold front, and should keep a steady cool
advection component in place through the day thanks to this feature.
We'll have some lower clouds lingering through the morning hours,
however expect those to scour out by late morning to midday. There
should be a brief period of mostly sunny skies before a thin batch
of high clouds moves in for the afternoon and early evening hours.
Overall, with the combo of light cool advection and variable
cloudiness temps are expected to be a bit cooler than yesterday.
Have most spots reaching the low and mid 50s, but may hang onto some
upper 40s in our NE CWA.
Dry conditions continue into tonight. Overall temperatures will be
cooler than the previous night, however still leaned on the higher
side of guidance thanks to some persistent Sct-Bkn upper clouds
expected to be in place. Looking for mostly low to mid 30s for lows.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
On Sunday, areas along and south of Interstate 64 are expected to
begin the day mostly cloudy as an upper low pressure system slides
east over southern Oklahoma and northern Texas towards the Lower
Mississippi Valley, but as northwest flow and surface high pressure
try to ease into southern Indiana and central Kentucky, clouds will
get pushed towards the southeast, exiting the CWA. Sunny skies and
light winds during the afternoon should help temperatures reach into
the upper 50s to low 60s.
Monday through Wednesday will see upper ridging and surface high
pressure push east into the Lower Ohio Valley. This will help to
keep skies sunny and clear. Warm air advection will remain light but
begin to build on Monday as the surface ridge pushes east of the
region, and as the pressure gradient strengthens against low
pressure to the northwest, southwest winds over the Lower Ohio
Valley will continue lifting temperatures every day into midweek.
Highs in the 60s on Monday are expected to warm into the low to mid
70s by Wednesday.
So the small upper low system that looked like it would bring light
rain the the CWA on Wednesday night now looks delayed and should
arrive Thursday morning. Model guidance now has the low breaking
apart and entering our area as a wave before dissipating back into
upper flow. Precipitation values continue to fall. This feature
could easily continue to weaken and not materialize into much for
our region.
We need to keep an eye on a possible system that could arrive later
in the week. Model agreement remains weak as the GFS shows a large
low pressure system developing over the northern Plains and pushing
a cold front through our region with some interesting hodographs and
soundings that could produce severe weather. The Euro has the same
type of system delayed by a day, so in time, agreement should come
into better focus in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
An area of low pressure is moving through the TAF sites at this
hour, and will continue pushing ESE of the area through morning.
This will drag a cold front through the area with winds becoming
steady out of the NW behind it. LEX may still see an hour or two of
scattered light rain shower activity, but overall the forecast will
trend dry through the morning. We'll have some periods of MVFR
ceilings between now and late morning, but expect VFR to return with
only a few lingering clouds through the rest of the day.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 8, 3:51 AM EST---------------
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