PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 6, 4:19 AM EST029
FXUS61 KPBZ 060919
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
419 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow is expected today, with most accumulation in the
higher terrain where 2 to 4 inches is possible. Winds remain
gusty through tonight. A clipper will provide additional snow
chances late Friday through Saturday morning, though impacts
will be limited. A warm up is then likely into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Snow chances increase this morning, diminish this afternoon.
- Gusty winds expected through tonight.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Latest surface analysis shows low pressure crossing southern
Ontario as an upper trough axis transits our region. Radar
shows the initial band of light snow crossing the area early
this morning with the trough axis. Coverage will begin to fill
in west to east during the pre-dawn hours behind this as flow
becomes more westerly and eventually northwesterly. Snow
showers will decrease from southwest to northeast through the
day as the low pulls away. With March sun angle and warm ground
temperatures, impacts should remain limited.
There is a >75% chance of a dusting area-wide, though chances of >1"
are confined to mainly the high terrain with orographic lift. The
only chances of >3" are for the highest peaks of the Laurels
and in the ridges of Preston and Tucker County WV. A winter
weather advisory remains in place for this threat.
Tight pressure gradient will keep gusty winds in the forecast
overnight and through Thursday with gusts peaking in the
afternoon. Once again, 30mph to 40mph gusts remain possible
with 75% confidence. Gusts over 50mph (50-80% probs) are
expected in eastern Tucker County, WV where a Wind Advisory
remains through tonight. Gusts will gradually relax overnight,
but breezy conditions will continue.
Temperatures will fall to near/just below freezing this
morning. Cold advection through the day will limit the diurnal
range, keeping most in the 30s this afternoon. Some clearing
overnight and continued cold advection will drop lows into the
20s tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry Friday with rain/snow chances Friday night into Saturday.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure will briefly build tonight before the next wave
Friday night. This will keep the area dry through at least
Friday morning, with rain and snow chances increasing late
Friday afternoon and evening. Best coverage appears to arrive
after sunset. Precipitation should begin as snow along the I-80
corridor, but may mix with rain farther south near Pittsburgh,
and start as all rain south of Pittsburgh. This will eventually
change to all snow overnight with cooling temperatures, though
final transition south of Pittsburgh may not occur until near
sunrise Saturday when lingering moisture is limited.
Chances of at least a dusting by 7am Saturday remain around 70%
for everywhere north of I-70, dropping off rapidly south of I-70
in the lowlands. Chances of >1" are around 50% for north of
I-80 and in the high terrain. Any impacts will readily improve
after sunrise given the March sun angle, though rain and/or snow
may continue through the morning for northern West Virginia and
far southwest Pennsylvania.
Quiet weather returns by Saturday afternoon with high
temperatures likely a tad below normals.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Quiet weather with a warming trend expected.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
All clustered ensemble guidance shows at least some degree of
ridging through midweek, which lends high confidence to a
warming trend. There remains some uncertainty in the amplitude
of ridging, which will impact how warm temperatures get. Beyond
Wednesday, either the pattern is maintained or some eastern
troughing returns, with max temperature difference between the
25th and 75th up to 15 to 20 degrees by late week, echoing the
uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR stratocu will be the rule through the day along with
scattered snow showers as cold advection ramps up in the wake
of a front.
Snow showers will taper of during the afternoon and the
stratocu deck will slowly decay from west to east. Latest
guidance shows a 20% chance of IFR cig/vis at best at FKL and
DUJ, but essentially zero farther south.
Gusty westerly winds between 20 and 30kts will persist through
the period with a tight pressure gradient and well mixed
boundary layer.
Outlook...
Precip and restrictions return late Friday through Saturday as
low pressure crosses to the south.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for WVZ512-
514.
Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for WVZ514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley/Milcarek
AVIATION...88
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 6, 4:19 AM EST---------------
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