LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 5, 12:36 PM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...692
FXUS63 KLMK 051736
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1236 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Wind gusts today may occasionally reach 40 to 55 mph. Most likely
time for strong gusts will be later this morning into the
afternoon.
* Falling temperatures through the day today into tonight with
possible rain mix to snow by late afternoon into tonight. Little
to no impacts are expected.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025
The cold front has just now entered the region from the west. Along
and ahead of the cold front, widely scattered showers are bringing
light to moderate rainfall and gusty winds up to 45mph. As the front
pass over, temperatures will quickly fall and continue to fall
through the day as strong CAA counteracts the diurnal temperature
curve. Additionally, gradient winds will remain elevated gusting up
to 55mph through the afternoon. As the low pressure system continues
to rotate and propagate northeast, rain will transition to light
snow in the late afternoon/early evening. A Trace to a few tenths of
an inch of snow is still expected. The previous forecast remains on
track.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 356 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025
Strong storm system will gradually work from northern IL into the
Great Lakes and then into southern Canada by tomorrow morning.
Current observations across the area show us in a bit of a lull from
the strongest winds as the core of the LLJ has is works out of our
CWA off to the east northeast. Winds across parts of western and
even central KY are between 10-20 mph with gusts of around 25 mph as
of 0830z. We will also be between the occluded boundary and the
stronger cold front that is currently just west of the Mississippi
River. This cold front will be working through central KY and
southern IN tomorrow morning just after sunrise. Winds will start to
increase once again as current Wind Advisory continues until 7pm
EST/6pm CST. Winds could once again gust to between 45 to 55 mph in
the afternoon with sustain winds out of the southwest between 20-30
mph. Colder air will start to advect in behind the departing cold
front as temperatures will start off in the low/mid 50s this morning
and continue to fall during the day to the low 40s/upper 30s by
early evening.
Showers are possible this morning along the boundary as it works
from west to east this morning into the early afternoon. Once it
passes, mid level lapse rates begin to steepen as colder air works
in over the area. Scattered rain showers are then likely later this
afternoon and into the evening. Most of the precipitation will fall
as rain until about late afternoon/early evening when we could see
the rain mix and eventually change over to snow later this evening
and overnight. Snow accumulation is not a major concern as sfc
temperatures will remain above freezing through most of the short
term. In fact, it's not until tomorrow morning that locations drop
near or below freezing. At most, light dusting or a coating will be
possible on elevated and grassy surfaces, mainly overnight.
Winds will also diminish overnight as the sfc low works over the
Great Lakes into Canada. It will remain blustery and breezy with
gusts overnight between 20-30 mph but below Wind Advisory criteria.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 356 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025
Thursday - Thursday Night...
An upper level trough axis will be east of the area by 12Z Thursday,
with ridging aloft building in behind it. Sfc high pressure off to
our west and southwest will shift eastward through the day, though a
lingering pressure gradient will yield continued breezy conditions.
Winds will gust to 20-25 mph from the WNW. Low clouds will likely
scour out from west to east from mid-morning into the afternoon
hours. Temperatures will be on the cool side of normal, with highs
only in the mid/upper 40s. The wind will make it feel cooler than
that.
Winds are lighter Thursday night with high pressure sliding across
the Southeast US. We'll see an increase in high clouds early Friday
morning, with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Friday - Saturday Night...
On Friday, weakening low pressure moves east from Kansas across
Missouri. A warm front will extend east through the Lower OH Valley,
with increasing SW low-level flow over TN and KY. Temperatures will
warm into the mid 50s to lower 60s. The bulk of the day looks dry
due to limited moisture. Rain chances increase Friday night as the
low traverses the region and drags a cold front through the forecast
area. Rainfall amounts will be light, around a tenth of an inch or
less. Look for Saturday morning lows in the mid 30s to near 40.
Saturday looks fairly quiet and a bit cooler with weak high pressure
building into the region. Highs will be around 50 degrees. A
somewhat stronger wave will pass to our south over the weekend and
could spread light precip as far north as southern KY Saturday
night. Precip chances are only around 20% south of Bowling Green at
this time. Lows will be in the low to mid 30s.
Sunday - Tuesday...
Sunday through Tuesday looks like a stretch of pleasant, dry
weather. An upper level trough and corresponding sfc low continue to
move east out over the Atlantic, and the flow aloft flattens out
early next week. Increasing low-level SW winds downstream of a
developing wave over the Plains will advect warmer air into the
region. Look for morning lows in the 30s/40s with afternoon highs in
the 60s/70s (Mon/Tue, respectively). While still several days out,
the pattern suggests well above normal temperatures on Tue (which
will continue through the middle of next week). With a fairly dry
airmass in place and robust SW winds, most if not all of the model
data is likely too cool.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025
The surface low is continuing to move northeast into the Great
Lakes. The cold front is pushing into the Bluegrass currently. Along
and ahead of the cold front, showers are impacting LEX and RGA.
Behind the front, there is a westerly winds shift. Winds will
continue to gust up to 45kts through the afternoon, as the pressure
gradients remain tight. Precip wrapped around the back of the low
will begin as light rain showers and transition to light snow
showers in the evening and through the overnight hours. As this
occurs, a dip in CIGs is likely to high-end IFR / low-end MVFR. In
the morning, skies will begin to lift and thin and winds will begin
to relax.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...SRW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 5, 12:36 PM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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