MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 4, 8:00 PM CDT ...New UPDATE...718
FXUS64 KMOB 050100
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
800 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
Currently watching a line of showers and thunderstorms moving
across southeast Mississippi. This line will move into southwest
Alabama over the next hour. Brief heavy rain, gusty winds and
frequent lightning will be the main threats. An isolated storm
could briefly become severe with winds near 60 mph for next 1 to 2
hours. Storms will weaken as they move east and instability
decreases with the loss of solar heating. The forecast has been
updated to increase pops for the remainder of the evening
hours./13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 733 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024/
..New AVIATION...
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS) Issued at XXXXXX
A line of storms will move across the area this evening with
brief heavy rain and gusty winds. Brief reductions to IFR/MVFR
will be possible in and around thunderstorms. VFR conditions
return tonight through Wednesday morning. /13
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024/
.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 422 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
We will see a continuation of a series of impulses/shortwave energy
moving in a westerly flow aloft to aid in the trigger for mainly
diurnal convection. The next main shortwave approaching the
Mississippi River has resulted in a rather impressive MCS across
Louisiana that will advance eastward across southern Mississippi
this afternoon, and then into the northwest quadrant of our forecast
area early this evening. At this time the CAMs are showing this
system dissipating before midnight. In the meantime, the ongoing
scattered convection across southwest Alabama will continue into
early evening prior to the arrival of the weakening MCS. Low
temperatures tonight fall into the upper 60s and mid 70s.
With high temperatures Wednesday climbing into the upper 80s and
lower 90s and with an even stronger shortwave moving in from the
west, isolated to scattered showers and storms near the coast in the
morning will once again expand inland in the afternoon. With the
approach of the upper shortwave, the CAMs are showing yet another
MCS pushing across the ArkLaTex region in the morning, and moving
fairly quickly across Louisiana southern Mississippi in the
afternoon. At this time it looks like this system will advance into
the entire forecast area through the overnight hours. It does appear
that deep layer shear will be a bit stronger with this system, which
could bolster a better threat for strong to severe storms. /22
SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 422 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
Similar pattern continues through the short term period, but
models do indicate the potential for a stronger shortwave aloft to
move across our area and Thursday morning. This will result in a
less diurnal pattern, with chances for showers and storms
remaining higher Wednesday night, and continuing into Thursday.
SPC just has general thunderstorms forecast for our entire area
Wednesday night, but with the strength of the shortwave energy
aloft there could again be a few strong to briefly severe storms
(especially Wednesday evening/overnight) and again Thursday
afternoon when instabilities are greatest. We will continue to
monitor for this potential. Rain chances will be lower on Thursday
night, and mainly confined to coastal locations. Lows both
Wednesday and Thursday nights will range from lower 70s inland to
middle 70s down along the coast. Highs on Thursday are expected to
be mainly in the mid to upper 80s, but a few lower 90s possible
over inland areas. DS/12
LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 422 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
Northwesterly flow aloft will continue through the weekend as an
upper trough lifts into the western Atlantic and an upper ridge
persists to our west. Guidance continues to indicate drier air
moving in on Saturday in the wake of the front with PWATs briefly
falling to around an inch or less Saturday morning. While we won't
see much relief in terms of temperatures, the limited moisture
will keep conditions mostly dry on Saturday. Highs are expected to
top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Moisture gradually
increases on Sunday as surface high pressure builds over the
eastern Gulf and southerly flow returns to the forecast. Isolated
to scattered showers and storms will be possible especially during
the afternoon hours when peak heating occurs. As we head into
next week, ensemble and most deterministic guidance suggests that
another late season front may try to move into the area as an
upper trough digs across the eastern US. Have stuck close to the
NBM for rain and storm chances early next week with coverage
remaining mostly isolated to scattered. Temperatures may cool
slightly behind this front, but only by a few degrees or so. /14
MARINE...
Issued at 422 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
No significant marine impacts expected throughout the week
as a light onshore flow prevails through midweek and then shifts
westerly late in the week. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 74 89 73 89 72 94 67 92 / 70 30 30 60 10 30 0 10
Pensacola 76 87 75 87 75 93 70 90 / 20 30 40 60 20 30 10 10
Destin 76 86 76 87 76 90 72 89 / 20 20 30 60 20 30 10 10
Evergreen 69 91 70 88 70 92 63 91 / 50 30 50 60 10 20 0 10
Waynesboro 71 91 70 89 69 91 64 92 / 70 50 60 40 10 10 0 10
Camden 69 90 69 87 68 89 63 89 / 70 40 60 50 10 10 0 10
Crestview 69 91 70 89 70 94 64 92 / 20 30 30 60 10 30 0 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 4, 8:00 PM CDT ...New UPDATE...---------------
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