ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 4, 9:24 AM EST918
FXUS61 KILN 041424
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
924 AM EST Tue Mar 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will move through the Ohio Valley
and Great Lakes region over the next several days bringing
warmer temperatures, gusty winds, and rainfall to the area on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Cooler temperatures arrive for the end of
the work week as the system departs.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minor changes made to the grids with the morning update. Main
focus was to blend in lower dewpoints to blended data based on
current observational trends. This led to relative humidity
values in the 25-30 percent range this afternoon across south
central Ohio into northeast Kentucky. Winds will become a bit
gusty along and west of the Interstate 71 corridor later this
morning through the afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens
ahead of a deep surface low moving northeast through the plains
states.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A 75 to 80 kt 850 mb jet will be moving into the forecast area
Tuesday evening and widespread rainfall arrives with this
feature and will move from southwest to northeast across the
area. Initially, momentum transfer processes will dominate on
the nose of this feature give the dry air in place in the lower
levels and we'll likely see some strong wind gusts. The current
plan is to handle these as they arrive with short fused
products, though this thinking may change during the day shift.
As the rainfall moves east and the profile saturates, it may
become difficult for additional strong gusts to make it down to
the surface, though, we're still anticipating breezy conditions.
Forecast soundings continue to indicate elevated instability
overnight, so have kept mention of thunder in the grids.
Heaviest rain moves east out of the region by sunrise and we
get briefly dry slotted Wednesday morning. At this point, the
center of the low will be moving over the western Great Lakes
along with the closed upper level trough and we'll have quite a
tight pressure gradient will be over us. Lapse rates steepen
during daytime hours and there is a robust signal for strong
synoptic wind gusts through much of Wednesday. Right now, have
gusts tickling 40 knots in the grids. May end up needing an
Advisory for Wednesday, but have held off right now and opted
for mention in the HWO.
High temperatures on Wednesday (mid 50s along OH/IN/KY border,
low 60s central OH/northern KY) will occur in the morning hours
as a cold front is poised to wrap around into our region. This
will bring additional rain showers to the area and a surge of
cold air. As the low continues to wrap up and CAA continues, any
remaining precipitation will likely transition to a wintry mix
then eventually to all snow by Wednesday night. Overnight lows
into Thursday fall to the 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Occluded storm system will be pulling away to the northeast into
southeast Canada on Thursday. It will still be windy for a good part
of the day, but gusts should start to ramp down later in the day,
and especially into the evening. There could be a few lingering snow
showers early on in the east, otherwise mainly cloudy skies will
show some clearing from the west during the afternoon. Highs will
range from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south.
For Thursday night, a surface ridge will quickly traverse east
through the region. Partly cloudy skies will give way to increasing
clouds from the west ahead of the next weather system. Lows will
range from the mid 20s east to the lower 30s west.
For the period Friday into Friday night, a fast moving s/wv will
eject east from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley. This feature
will be associated with surface low pressure and a cold front.
Models differ on the exact track and strength of the low, and
therefore vary on thermal profiles from north to south. Have taken
an a blended approach due to the uncertainty. This scenario brings
rain/snow to our northern zones with a chance of rain south on
Friday. For Friday night, the rain/snow line will move southeast as
colder air filters in before pcpn tapers off. Will keep snow
accumulations low at this point until there is a better consensus.
Highs on Friday will range from the upper 30s north to near 50 far
south. Lows Friday night will range from the mid 20s north to the
lower 30s south.
On Saturday, we should see a reprieve in the pcpn threat as surface
high pressure briefly makes a visit. Highs will range from the upper
30s north to the upper 40s south.
For Sunday into Sunday night, models differ on the strength and
timing of a mid level trough forecast to dig southeast across
southeast Canada into the eastern Great Lakes and New England. How
far south and southwest an associated cold front will push into our
area remains uncertain. This should be only be a temperature issue,
depending on what transpires. For now will forecast highs in the
upper 30s north to the mid 40s south with lows Sunday night dipping
back into the mid and upper 20s.
High pressure should make a return to our region on Monday. This
should be the start of a warming trend which is forecast to continue
into at least mid to late next week.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Southwest flow continues with a mid level broken deck ahead of
an approaching low pressure system. A low level jet will move
over the Ohio Valley region as the morning progresses and have
introduced a period of LLWS. Afternoon winds today remain out of
the south, around 10-15 knots, gusting to 25 knots at times.
Rain begins to move into the region after 00Z tonight, moving
from west to east. Anticipating some strong winds with the
arrival of rain with strong gusts possible. Kept gusts around 35
knots in the TAFs, but higher gusts may occur with heavier
showers. Rain continues during the overnight with a rumble of
thunder possible (did not include thunder in TAFs due to low
confidence). Periods of LLWS also continue, with a jet around 4K
ft cranking out of the south at 70-80 knots. A period of MVFR
CIGs and VSBYs is likely with heaviest rain during overnight
period.
By sunrise, rain moves off to the east and we might even scatter
out as the "dry slot" of the system moves through the area.
Kept a VFR BKN deck for now. Signal for LLWS becomes more
patchy, but kept it in the TAFs for consistency and awareness
that it may still be present at times.
Did not go into an extended CVG TAF since this set was already
pretty full, but anticipate rain showers to begin again
Wednesday mid/late morning with MVFR CIGs moving into the
region with strong gusty winds.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions likely Wednesday into Thursday. Wind
gusts near or greater than 40 knots possible Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...CA
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 4, 9:24 AM EST---------------
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