IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 1, 2:00 PM EST688
FXUS63 KIWX 011900
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
200 PM EST Sat Mar 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lake effect snow showers taper off this evening.
- Seasonably cold and mainly dry through Monday.
- Mild midweek as a potent system brings widespread heavy rain
Tuesday into Wednesday and then a brief chance for snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM EST Sat Mar 1 2025
Happy March 1st! After a few mild days, we begin meteorological
spring by retuning to winter! CAA and cyclonic, northwest flow
on the backside of a low pressure system centered over the
Northeast has resulted in persistent lake effect snow showers
today. Accumulations will be light (a half inch or less) as
these showers are relatively scattered and the snowflakes are
very small. As high pressure builds over the Upper Midwest
tonight and winds shift to the west/southwest, subsidence will
aid in diminishing the lake effect snow showers. As this large
area of high pressure expands into the Upper Great Lakes and
Ohio River Valley through the weekend, seasonably cold and dry
conditions are expected through Monday. Highs will be in the
mid 30s on Sunday and in the mid 40s on Monday.
A mild and active weather pattern is ahead for the first week of
March. A strong low pressure system will lift northwest out of the
Central Plains on Tuesday. Heavy rain is likely Tuesday evening into
Wednesday as the system's attendant warm front lifts north. Even a
few days away, the signals for widespread, heavy rain are present.
Over an inch of rain is possible (especially in northwest Indiana
and southwest Lower Michigan) as a strong 500mb shortwave will
provide ample lift and PWATs over 1 inch area-wide indicate
potential for widespread, heavy rain Tuesday night. Forecast
soundings (especially at KBEH and KSBN) for this timeframe are
almost completely saturated across the entire column, which is also
indicative of efficient rainfall. A few embedded thunderstorms will
also be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday south of US 30. As
colder air wraps around the backside of the system, a brief period
of snow is possible on Wednesday as flow switches to the northwest.
It is also worth noting that this strong low pressure system will
cause a tight pressure gradient to setup over the Midwest, which
means windy conditions are expected later Tuesday and
especially on Wednesday. Temperatures will be cooler into the
30s and 40s by the end of the week and into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM EST Sat Mar 1 2025
Lake effect snow showers will persist this afternoon into early
this evening with brief times of reduced visibilities, mainly
at KSBN. Breezy northwest winds up to 20-25 knots this afternoon
will diminish and back more westerly overnight into tomorrow as
high pressure builds into the OH Valley. This will shut off the
lake effect machine during this time with VFR conditions into
Sunday.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 1, 2:00 PM EST---------------
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