JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 2, 9:01 PM EST148
FXUS63 KJKL 030201
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
901 PM EST Sun Mar 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and increasingly breezy conditions on Tuesday afternoon may
yield near critical fire weather conditions.
- Windy with rain expected Tuesday night into Wednesday, probably
changing to snow in many places Wednesday night into Thursday as
colder air arrives.
- Milder temperatures return to finish the week, with another
potential for rain by Saturday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2025
No substantive changes were needed on the mid-evening update.
Still expect temperatures to drop rapidly this evening under
nearly ideal radiative cooling conditions -- clear skies, dry
air, and light winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 402 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2025
Surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley this afternoon will
drift slowly east to the coast by late Monday. Aloft, an upper
trough along the East Coast late today will also migrate eastward,
with benign west to northwest flow aloft on its back side over
our area. This will give us light winds and continued clear to
partly cloudy skies, with just some high clouds possible. Combined
with the chilly, dry air mass in place, it will allow for another
cold night. See no reason why valleys won't again drop to the
teens by sunrise.
Warmer air aloft arriving tonight will create a sizable
temperature inversion to start the day on Monday, with more
warming set to occur during the day. This will allow for a large
temperature jump for highs, possibly climbing 40 degrees in some
valleys.
The first effects of the next storm system will show up on Monday
night. A large upper low currently over CA is expected to deepen
further and move east to the central plains by dawn on Tuesday. It
will support development of a large, intense surface low in that
area. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient all the way
east to the Appalachians, with our low level flow increasing
during the night. Aloft, ridging ahead of the system will move
east over us by dawn. High clouds spilling through the ridge
should begin to show up overnight. The clouds along with
increasing low level southerly flow will give less favorable
conditions for cooling on Monday night, especially on ridges.
Valleys should initially be able to decouple from the flow, but
this is less likely to be maintained in our western counties
through the night. The result is a tricky temperature forecast
with ridge/valley differences and possibly rising temps before
dawn in some places.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2025
The forecast period will be highlighted by a several instances of
busy weather through the entire forecast period. Below, a break down
of each day will be laid out. However, to set the stage, a surface
low and upper-level trough will eject off the Rockies overnight
Monday into early Tuesday.
Tuesday: The large scale synoptic trough and 100-110 kt jetstreak,
mentioned above, will be off the leeside of the Rockies and moving
into the southern Plains. At the surface, leeside cyclogenesis will
take place with the low forecast to be centered over northern
Oklahoma/southern Kansas. Extending southwest from the center of the
low, a cold front exists. This front will fire off severe weather
across Dixie Alley but for eastern Kentucky the weather will be
closely watched for the fire weather potential. Potent south to
southeasterly flow from a strong LLJ will advect warmer temperatures
into the region. Along with those warmer temperatures, Gulf of
America moisture will also be advected into the region; however, due
to the low-level southeasterly flow, local downsloping and drying of
the parcels will bring down overall relative humidities. This
combination will work in conjunction to create an environment
conducive for fire weather concerns and increased fire weather
danger.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday Morning: The surface low is
forecast to be moving into the Great Lakes with the cold front
quickly tracking toward the CWA. The environment ahead of the front
is largely lacking of instability due to timing of the front but
this could be a case of low CAPE-high shear where instability won't
matter. Forecast 0-3 km bulk shear of 40 to 50 kts is more than
enough to keep thunderstorms sustainable. Therefore, severe
thunderstorms could be possible overnight Tuesday into Wednesday
morning along and ahead of the cold front.
Wednesday through Friday Afternoon:
Once the initial line of thunderstorms move through the region
Wednesday morning. Lingering backside rain/snow showers will be
possible through the remainder of the day. Also, due to steep low-
level lapse rates and lack of an inversion, upper-level winds,
associated with the trough will mix down to the surface. Sustained
winds of around 20 to 25 mph with gusts upward of 35 to 40 mph and
even stronger gusts in the high terrain are forecast. These winds
will be near advisory criteria and an NPW will likely be needed for
these winds. Going back to the PoP, backside showers, first rain
then rain-snow mix then all snow, will continue to taper off from
late Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon. Surface high
pressure will build back into the region for Thursday and continue
through Friday afternoon.
Rest of the Period: Another system is expected to develop off the
lee of the Rockies and quickly track eastward through the day Friday
before being on the doorstep of the CWA for late Friday evening into
Saturday morning. Models aren't in much agreement with how this
system will play out, which makes sense since its a week out, but
the GFS is the most aggressive with this system and the ECMWF leaner
with PoP. Therefore, kept the NBM solution which has 50-60% chance
of rain overnight Friday into Saturday and tapering off through
Sunday. Since the area will be above freezing, this system will be
largely a full rain event.
Overall the period will start with fire weather concerns before
periods of showers and storms move into the region late Tuesday.
Some of those storms could be severe late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Also, major temperatures swings are to be expected as
highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the low to mid-60s before a
cold front Wednesday brings those temperatures back to more March
averages. Another system will bring another round of showers for
late week with warming temperatures occurring Friday into
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2025
VFR conditions and light winds are forecast through the period.
A few passing high clouds are expected at times area-wide, and a
few mid-level clouds could sneak into the I-64 corridor during the
daylight hours on Monday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 2, 9:01 PM EST---------------
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