JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 1, 6:50 PM EST286
FXUS63 KJKL 012350
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
650 PM EST Sat Mar 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly dry and quiet weather will continue through the weekend.
- Windy conditions with widespread rain showers and a low
potential for thunderstorms will accompany a strong cold front
passage late Tuesday through Wednesday.
- Cold returns briefly Wednesday night into Thursday with
scattered to numerous snow showers.
- Temperatures quickly moderate with rain chances returning Friday
into Friday night, and likely continuing into at least the start
of next weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 510 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2025
A few novelty spring flurries have been observed over portions of
the area late this afternoon and are possible through the evening
for many locations, especially east of I-75.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 450 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2025
A cold front is departing to our south this afternoon, allowing a
chilly air mass to arrive on brisk northwest winds. High pressure
dropping to the Ohio Valley overnight will allow the winds to
slacken and then remain light through Sunday night. If winds
manage to die off enough for valleys to decouple, there will
likely be lows in the teens there each night.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2025
To start the period, surface high pressure will be well entrenched
over much of the eastern CONUS. Aloft, a weak shortwave is forecast
to be tracking across the Deep South but will quickly dissipate and
get wrapped up in the mean flow; therefore, high pressure will
remain overhead for the start of the period into early Tuesday
morning. However, to the west, a strong upper-level trough and
potent jetstreak will eject off the Rockies into the Central Plains.
By Tuesday morning, the surface feature and upper level trough will
have moved off the Rockies and into the southern Central Plains. The
upper-level trough is forecast to pivot and become more negatively
tilted before ejecting northeast toward the Ohio Valley by late
Tuesday night. At the surface, the warm front will lift into the
region bringing increased PoP chances to the CWA before the approach
of the cold front. Behind the warm front, the LLJ will advect warm
temperatures into the region as highs climb into the low to mid-60s
for Tuesday. By Tuesday night, the surface low is forecast to be
moving into the Great Lakes with the cold front quickly tracking
toward the CWA. The environment ahead of the front is largely
lacking of instability but this could be a case of low CAPE-high
shear where instability won't matter and severe thunderstorms could
be possible overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
Once FROPA occurs early Wednesday morning, lingering backside
showers will continue to exist but CAA will allow those showers to
be a rain/snow mix late Wednesday evening. Rain showers will change
over to all snow by early Thursday morning before tapering off early
Thursday afternoon. High pressure is expected to build into the
region Thursday with a return to more seasonal temperatures but
those colder temperatures will be short-lived as another system is
expected to develop off the lee of the Rockies and quickly track
eastward through the day Friday before being on the doorstep of the
CWA for late Friday night into Saturday morning.
Overall the period will be highlighted by periods of showers and
storm, some of which could be severe Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Also, major temperatures swings are to be expected as highs Tuesday
and Wednesday will be in the low to mid-60s before a cold front
Wednesday brings those temperatures back to more March averages.
Another system will bring another round of showers for late week
with warming temperatures occurring Friday into Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period. A cloud field in
the 3.5-6K foot AGL will slowly dry up overnight. Northwest winds
will also slacken as heating is lost and mixing subsides this
evening with variable winds generally under 5 kts expected
overnight and on Sunday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 1, 6:50 PM EST---------------
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