CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 1, 6:52 AM EST013
FXUS61 KCLE 011152
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
652 AM EST Sat Mar 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure exits through New England today with high pressure
building from the west tonight. High pressure persists through
Monday, with a warm front lifting through on Tuesday. Deep low
pressure will track through the Great Lakes Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
It took much of the night, but stronger cold air advection is
finally winning out with everyone at or below freezing at 7 AM.
Strong cold air advection will continue through the day, with
850mb temperatures falling to -15 to -20C (coldest northeast)
by this evening. In the face of this cold air advection there
will be little to no temperature recovery this afternoon, with
all sites observing their daily highs at midnight this morning.
Temperatures will generally sit in the mid to upper 20s today
(perhaps some lower 20s in the higher elevations of the
snowbelt). Wind gusts of 25-35 MPH continue this morning and
will only gradually start diminishing this afternoon...tailing
off more this evening.
Along with the return of a wintry airmass to start the month of
March will be some snow shower potential. A shortwave is evident
on water vapor over MI/IN just before 7 AM and will swing
through this morning, along with an accompanying low-level
trough axis. With steepening low-level lapse rates amid cold
advection and some lake enhancement as temperatures drop, could
see some flurries or light snow showers pretty much anywhere
with the highest confidence in the higher terrain from near
Mansfield points east-northeast thanks to any lake contribution
and upslope. Likely will be a lull in activity later this
morning behind the shortwave and surface trough. Suspect it will
be hard to get organized lake effect going this afternoon due
to a fairly dry airmass, short fetch, icy lake and relatively
high early March sun angle (which disrupts the lake effect
process in early and late season events). Still, with
increasingly cold temperatures aloft leading to steep lapse
rates through the dendritic growth zone, any amount of moisture
will lead to some flakes getting squeezed out this afternoon.
One more subtle vort max works through during the mid-late
afternoon hours which could lead to a bit of an increase in
activity overall. Generally think that after this morning's
trough passage that some off and on flurries will be possible
anywhere, with scattered snow showers at times from roughly
Sandusky-Mt Vernon points east...particularly in hillier
terrain. A Lake Huron connection may try grazing eastern Erie
County this afternoon. Don't think anyone gets more than an inch
of snow today...and most will see much less than that. If Lake
Huron moisture grazes eastern Erie County there could be a
fluffy inch or two in the higher terrain near the NY border.
We should see any flurries outside of the snowbelt end this
evening with the loss of daytime heating and any synoptic
support. There may be a window into tonight where better diurnal
timing allows for a modest increase in lake effect activity in
the snowbelt...especially the higher terrain given a shorter
west-northwest fetch. However, the general theme for the night
will be a gradual drying airmass and lowering subsidence
inversion as high pressure builds in from the west. Outside of
eastern Erie County PA, where some Lake Huron connection is
possible through the evening, am expecting any additional
accumulations tonight to be under half an inch...with locally an
inch or so possible in the higher terrain of eastern Erie
County. The clearing process may be somewhat slow the first half
of the night, though expect locations not seeing lake effect to
clear decently overnight tonight into early Sunday. Clouds will
generally hang on in the snowbelt though with some holes at
times. Most of the area will see lows in the 10s tonight, with
wind chills bottoming out at 5-10 degrees across much of
northern Ohio and on either side of 0 in Northwest PA.
Other than some lingering lake clouds (and maybe a flurry early)
in the snowbelt, Sunday will be a dry day with a fair amount of
sunshine and lighter winds. There will be a decent spread in
highs, from the low to mid 20s in PA to the mid 30s along the
I-75 corridor where some warm air advection will begin.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A period of quiet weather and a warmup will define the start of the
workweek as mid/upper troughing lingering over the eastern Great
Lakes Sunday night and Monday is replaced by a building mid/upper
ridge over the eastern CONUS Monday night and Tuesday. At the
surface, a large area of high pressure will drift from the Ohio
Valley and Appalachians Sunday night and Monday to offshore of the
Mid Atlantic by Tuesday. This pattern will support lots of sunshine
Monday before clouds gradually increase ahead of an approaching
storm system. Highs will remain chilly in the upper 30s/low 40s
Monday after a cold morning start with lows in the mid teens to
around 20 Sunday night. The developing southerly return flow will
allow highs Tuesday to warm into the upper 40s/low 50s in most areas
after a milder night Monday night when lows only fall into the upper
20s/mid 30s.
The quiet weather to start the week will not last as the
aforementioned storm system begins to affect the region Tuesday and
Tuesday night. In terms of the details, a classic "bowling ball"
mid/upper trough will eject from the Rockies into the Plains Monday
night and Tuesday before crossing the Mississippi Valley Tuesday
night while phasing with a northern stream mid/upper trough dropping
through the Great Lakes. This will allow for a very dynamic storm
system to take shape, with surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the
southern Rockies early Tuesday supported by the left exit of a 130+
knot H3 jet streak rapidly deepening and ejecting northeastward
through the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys late Tuesday and Wednesday.
The phasing supports the rapid deepening as a large negatively
tilted parent mid/upper trough takes shape across the Great Lakes in
the wake of the storm. Deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in
remarkable agreement on the overall timing and track of the surface
low, with just subtle differences.
This track and pattern is favorable for a surge of warm air, high
winds, and possible strong to severe convection. The current SPC
outlooks do not have any severe risk highlighted at this time due to
uncertainty with how far north the instability can spread, but the
setup is worth watching for late Tuesday or Tuesday night, and shear
will certainly be very high. The more certain impact from the system
will be rain and wind. Expect a band of steady rain, and possibly
elevated convection, to gradually spread across the region Tuesday
and Tuesday night as a 50+ knot low-level jet results in strong
warm/moist advection and isentropic ascent along and ahead of a warm
front. Have chance PoPs late Monday night and Tuesday morning
becoming categorical by Tuesday night. This low-level jet and a
southeasterly low-level flow ahead of the warm front could lead to
strong downsloping winds near the lakeshore of NE Ohio and NW PA
Tuesday night before more widespread wind issues develop Wednesday.
Lows Tuesday night will be much milder with temperatures possibly
rising through the night, and expect generally low/mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The dynamic storm system described above will continue to impact the
region Wednesday and Wednesday night as the deep surface low lifts
up into Michigan then through southern Ontario by Wednesday night.
Most of the rain should move out behind the warm front Wednesday
morning as we get into the warm sector, so have slightly lower PoPs
through the day Wednesday before showers fill back in late Wednesday
and Wednesday night as the cold front crosses the region. The tight
pressure gradient and dry slot will cause strong SW winds to mix
down in the warm sector Wednesday before turning WNW behind the cold
front Wednesday night and remaining strong with a strong pressure
rise/fall couplet and cold air advection. Wind headlines are a
strong possibility Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Leftover rain showers will change to snow showers Wednesday night
and Thursday as the cold air deepens behind the departing storm
before high pressure briefly builds in Thursday night and early
Friday.
Highs will be mild Wednesday with upper 50s to around 60 expected,
and this is probably conservative. Highs will cool into the
low/upper 30s Thursday before moderating into the low/mid 40s
Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Trough pushing southeast across the area as we come up on 12z,
with an increase in flurries and scattered snow showers,
particularly from near CLE and CAK points east due to lake
enhancement. Ceilings are a mix of low VFR and MVFR.
Intermittent flurry and snow shower activity will continue off
the lake through this afternoon, with brief vsby restrictions
remaining possible with snow showers at CLE, CAK, YNG and ERI.
Used a variety of from groups, TEMPOs, and PROB30s to depict
when these restrictions are most likely at each terminal. Likely
will see ceilings remain in the low VFR or MVFR range through
this afternoon, though likely with slight net improvement
overall this afternoon. Into tonight high pressure builds
in...low VFR or MVFR ceilings may take much of the night to
scatter out southeast of Lake Erie, though western terminals
should go clear by later this evening into the overnight. Lake
effect snow showers will continue tonight into far Northeast OH
and Northwest PA, but only looking at limited vsby issues.
Winds are veering more northwesterly this morning at 10 to 18
knots with 20 to 30 knot gusts. Winds will lose a bit of
gustiness through this afternoon, then will slowly back to a
more westerly direction tonight while losing the gusts and
subsiding to 5 to 10 knots.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected to return in widespread rain late
Tuesday through Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain suspended at this time due to
significant ice cover on Lake Erie.
NW winds of 15-25 knots early today will diminish to 10-15 knots
this afternoon and 5-10 knots tonight before turning W at 10-15
knots Sunday. Light and variable winds Sunday night will gradually
turn S at 5-10 knots Monday before S winds increase to 10-20 knots
by late Monday night and Tuesday. Winds will further increase and
turn to the SW late Tuesday night and Wednesday as a strong low
pressure system lifts toward Lower Michigan, and this could result
in Gales on the lake. The pattern and track of the low is very
favorable for a classic March wind storm, so the midweek period will
need to be monitored for shipping impacts from high winds and ice
floes.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Garuckas
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 1, 6:52 AM EST---------------
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