BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 25, 1:09 PM EST390
FXUS61 KBOX 251809
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
109 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Mild temperatures are expected through Thursday with a few spot
showers later today and this evening as a cold front moves through.
Dry Wednesday then a frontal system will bring more widespread
showers Thursday which may begin as some snow late Wednesday night
across northern MA. Blustery and somewhat cooler weather returns
Friday then a clipper system may bring rain and snow showers late
Friday night into Saturday. Behind this system, blustery and cold
conditions follow for Sunday and Monday with below normal
temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10AM Update:
Radar shows some light returns across northern MA this morning.
Not seeing much of this hit the ground with 5-10 degree
dewpoint depressions. Otherwise the forecast remains on track
with more clouds then sun today and warm temperatures in the
upper 40s to low 50s.
Key Messages...
* More clouds than sunshine, but still above normal temperatures
* Increasing risk for showers this afternoon
A warm front passes through southern New England early this
morning. Despite lingering clouds, still expecting high
temperatures to be 10-15 degrees above normal. With water
temperatures still in the mid to upper 30s, expecting local
weak seabreezes to develop, along with briefly lower
temperatures along the immediate coasts. The 25/00Z 3km NAM and
latest HRRR runs have been the most consistent with this.
A mid level shortwave should arrive from the west late today.
Not a lot of moisture with it, but enough where there is at
least some risk for showers. Thinking this will be mainly across
the western half of southern New England, as it should be near
or just after sunset by the time it reaches the eastern half.
The loss of daytime heating will make it tougher for showers to
linger.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Well above normal temperatures continue
* Becoming drier late this evening into Wednesday
High pressure centered over the southeast USA extends its
influence into southern New England. While not directly
overhead, there should be enough subsidence to dry out the
forecast and bring more sunshine for Wednesday, at least earlier
in the day. Then the approach of a dissipating cold front should
at least result in increasing clouds.
Winds should be more from the NW Wednesday. That should keep
high temperatures near to slightly lower than what we see today.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* A frontal system will bring a period of rain Thursday which
may begin as snow across northern MA Wed night. Minor accums
possible
* Blustery and cooler Friday
* Potential clipper system late Fri night into Saturday may bring
some rain and snow showers
* Blustery and cold Sunday and Monday with temps well below normal.
Details...
Wednesday night through Thursday night...
Upper trough amplifies across the Gt Lakes as northern stream
shortwave energy digs southward from Canada. Ahead of the trough a
modest low level jet will develop which will bring enhanced moisture
and increasing forcing for ascent as a warm front approaches. Precip
expected to develop overnight Wed night and continue into Thu as
series of shortwaves rotate through the region. As precip moves in,
the column is marginally cold enough to support snow across northern
MA before changing to rain by daybreak. Any accums will be limited
to a coating to an inch. Rain should then become more showery during
the day as the warm front lifts to the north with cold approaching
from the west late in the day. Temps will reach the 40s interior and
lower 50s in the coastal plain. The low level jet may bring some
gusty SW winds to the coast, but low level inversion will limit the
gustiness.
Dry slot moves into the region by Thu evening with PWATs falling
sharply Thu night. Any lingering showers expected to end by Thu
evening, but approaching mid level trough may bring a few snow
showers to western MA late Thu night as colder air deepens.
Friday through Monday...
The upper trough moves through early Fri followed by rather dry
airmass as PWATs drop below 0.25". Mainly dry, blustery and cooler
conditions Fri, then another northern stream trough and shortwave
approaches Fri night into Sat. Fairly robust clipper system expected
to pass to the north so steadier precip will remain to the north but
expect another round of scattered snow and rain showers late Fri
night in warm advection pattern, especially across northern MA,
becoming all rain showers Sat as milder air moves in. Another low
level jet will result in gusty SW winds developing Sat in the
coastal plain.
The system moves out by Sat night, with strong cold front passage
bringing blustery and much colder airmass for Sunday as 850 mb temps
drop to -15C and colder. Temps will be well below normal Sun-Mon
with gusty winds adding to the wind chill Sun, but diminishing wind
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...Moderate Confidence
VFR. There's a low chance MVFR ceilings may develop across
western MA, along with a few brief spot showers after 21z. S/SSW
winds 5-10 kts.
Tonight...Moderate Confidence - ceilings and shower chances
Low chance (< 30%) for brief showers this evening, through 03z.
Mainly VFR conditions, but areas of IFR stratus may develop in
the evening over ACK to the outer Cape. Chance for a period of
MVFR ceilings elsewhere. Light SW winds become WNW after 06z.
Ceilings begin to scatter out from west to east toward 12z.
Wednesday...High Confidence.
VFR conditions. WNW/NW winds 5-12 kts with gusts up to 25 kts
developing after 14z.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in ceilings and shower chances
this evening.
A brief shower tonight 00-03z with a period of high end MVFR
ceilings possible through 09z. Breezy NW winds Wednesday with
gusts up to 20 kts developing 15-17z through afternoon.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SN, slight chance RA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.
Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHSN, slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Wednesday...High Confidence.
Weak high pressure across the waters into Wednesday. The last of
the gusty winds across the eastern outer MA coastal waters
should subside early this morning. Anticipating light winds and
seas with good visibility through Wednesday.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.
Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain showers.
Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of snow showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/KJC
NEAR TERM...Belk/KP
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...Mensch/KP
MARINE...Belk/KJC
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 25, 1:09 PM EST----------------
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