IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 26, 2:18 PM EST634
FXUS63 KIWX 261918
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
218 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers (and isolated thunderstorms) continue through
this afternoon/evening. Areas of light rain/drizzle possible tonight
and again tomorrow afternoon/evening.
- Dry, mild, and windy on Friday before colder air moves in for the
weekend.
- Several rain/snow chances next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025
Scattered showers are ongoing this afternoon as a low pressure
system lifts northeast through Minnesota and Wisconsin. The
attendant warm front is lifting north, helping to boost temperatures
into the 50s. As lift and WAA increase this afternoon and evening,
showers may increase in coverage and a few rumbles of thunder are
also possible! Rain tapers off this evening and the overnight hours
will be dry, outside of some potential for drizzle along the Indiana-
Michigan border. As the low pressure system exits the region and a
series of 500 mb shortwaves pivot through the Upper Great Lakes
tomorrow, forecast soundings suggest areas of light rain will be
possible, especially in the afternoon and evening. From now through
tomorrow evening, rain totals will be very light, likely 0.10" or
less in most locations.
It will be mainly dry from Friday through Monday, with the exception
of a small chance for snow showers Saturday morning. While it will
be dry Friday, it will also be windy. An Alberta clipper system will
dive through Ontario and Upper Michigan, with a tightening pressure
gradient across the Midwest. Southwest winds will be sustained 20-25
mph, with gusts to 30-35 mph. WAA will also boost temperatures into
the 50s again on Friday. The system's attendant cold front will
sweep through Friday night, bringing in colder air for the weekend.
Highs will be in the 30s both days this weekend, with mainly dry
conditions expected as high pressure builds across the central CONUS.
A more active weather pattern is ahead for the first week of March
with chances for rain/snow starting Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025
Low pressure over northwest IL this afternoon will track east
during the TAF period brining rain, reduced ceilings and a wind
shift. A warm front is seen just south of KSBN and just
southwest of KFWA. This warm sector will be the focus for
additional showers (and maybe a thunderstorm) for the remainder
of the day. High resolution guidance suggests the greatest
coverage of showers will be south of KSBN, but upstream radar
trends lead to me believe a shower can move through KSBN this
afternoon. Showers will be most numerous at KFWA.
A sharp decline in ceilings is anticipated tonight. Stout
low-level inversions and visibility guidance favor some DZ
and/or BR through Thursday morning. The magnitude of this visby
restriction is uncertain, but high confidence in ceilings of
400-500 ft. Improving ceilings late in the TAF period but with
increasing chances of lake effect rain showers.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Brown
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 26, 2:18 PM EST---------------
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