LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 28, 3:18 PM EST448
FXUS63 KLMK 282018
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
318 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Mild temperatures with gusty southwest winds continue this
afternoon and evening. Wind Advisory for most of the area
continue until tonight.
* Unseasonably chilly Saturday and Sunday.
* Widespread rain expected Tuesday into Wednesday, with a few
strong thunderstorms possible Tuesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
Above normal temperatures and breezy winds are ongoing across the
area this afternoon. We've been able to mix out quite a bit, with RH
values ranging in the 20s and 30s. Strong high pressure across the
Gulf Coast has kept strong subsidence and dry air for a large part
of the country. A sfc low is tracking across the Great Lakes region
today.
For the rest of this evening, we'll continue to have gusty winds as
an upper shortwave pivots across the Ohio Valley, with an associated
LLJ moving across. By later this evening, the low level inversion
will help cut off our mixing and allow our sfc winds to relax.
However, we will continue to have several more hours of gusty winds
as the core of the LLJ makes it arrival over our area, so the Wind
Advisory will continue as is.
After midnight, a weak cold front will drop southward through the
lower Ohio Valley. We won't have any substantial moisture, but a
narrow band of clouds are expected to accompany the front. These
clouds are currently slowly shifting southward through northern
Indiana and Illinois. With FROPA, we'll see a sharp wind shift, from
the warm SW flow, to a cold NW flow by tomorrow morning. Timing of
the front will play a role in min temps overnight, with near
freezing across southern Indiana, to near 40 in the Lake Cumberland
region.
Dry weather continues tomorrow behind the front. Could have some
additional breezy winds in the wake of the front, but are not
expected to be of advisory magnitude. Temps tomorrow will be much
colder due to the CAA, with highs only reaching the upper 30s across
southern Indiana and lower 40s for Kentucky.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
Saturday Night - Monday...
Dry NW flow aloft and strong surface high pressure control through
the weekend. This gives us a cold and dry setup with highs only in
the upper 30s to mid 40s on Sunday. Overnight lows in the upper
teens and low 20s on Saturday night will be the coldest values of
this brief cold spell. Temps begin to moderate by Monday with highs
climbing back around normal mostly in the low and mid 50s.
Later Monday - Monday Night...
A weak shortwave quickly scoots through later Monday into Monday
night. Could bring a quick shot of light rain, but overall barely
worth mentioning at the moment.
Tuesday - Thursday...
Temps continue to trend milder through mid week ahead of a
developing surface low over the central Plains. Southerly flow stays
pretty strong between that feature and surface high pressure
retreating off the mid Atlantic coast. Gusty winds look like a
pretty good bet from Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Some light
showers could be noted as isentropic lift increases over a
developing and retreating warm front. By Tuesday afternoon, a brief
warm sector is likely to develop over at least KY, if not farther
north. 90th percentile NBM puts temps in the upper 60s with dew
points in the low to mid 50s as we head into Tuesday night. This
seems like the type of pattern to support more aggressive values
given a strong surface low track from the mid Mississippi River
Valley through the western Great Lakes.
Overall, temp/dew points and resulting low level thermal profile
seems to be lacking to be concerned about a purely surface based
warm sector going into Tuesday night ahead of the cold fropa. That
being said, the potential to get at least some near-surface based
instability is certainly on the table, and therefore at least some
threat for pockets of damaging wind and/or a brief spin up tornado
threat would be possible. Obviously most concerned about our SW CWA,
but at this point think we could see at least some risk over most of
our CWA given the shear profile. Timing currently looks to be
Tuesday evening/night which does help from a diurnal minimum
standpoint, but the advection alone could be enough to destabilize
us just enough. Stay tuned.
We get the post frontal wrap around associated with the comma head
of the mature cyclone by Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Temps do
cool off into the 30s on Wednesday night, so could see some lapse
rate driven showers/snow showers. Gusty winds will will also be
notable during this stretch.
Thursday Night - Friday...
Looks like we dry out by Thursday, however may see another system
quickly follow on the heels by late week. Low confidence on
timing/strength/placement of that system, so not a lot of confidence
on details other than a fairly consistent signal for some sort of
system in the region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
VFR flight categories will continue for the TAF period. Southwest
winds will increase this afternoon, with gusts up to 30 kts
possible. A LLJ will help increase LLWS concerns for all terminals
except HNB, with the peak time being between 00z-06z tonight. Winds
will gradually relax after 06z, with sfc winds becoming more of a NW
flow after a dry cold front passes through the area.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Wind Advisory until midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for
KYZ023>025-027>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-077-078.
IN...Wind Advisory until midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...CJP
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 28, 3:18 PM EST---------------
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