LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 21, 9:46 PM CST ...New UPDATE...666
FXUS64 KLIX 220346
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
946 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
Quite a bit of mid and high level cloud cover that wasn't being
depicted real well in some guidance. Expect most areas to remain
cloudy for a significant portion of the overnight hours, if not
all night. That's likely to keep most of the area above freezing
overnight, and if we don't get many breaks in the overcast,
temperatures may not drop much from where they are now.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 345 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
A mostly zonal flow resides over the region this afternoon. Today,
temperatures have warmed a bit more on the northshore with middle
and upper 50s across most of this area. However, with the
northeasterly flow, the southshore has been a bit lower with most
locations only warming into the mid 40s. High pressure is
spreading into the region. At the center, a 1040mb high over MO
will spread east and southward. That said, our upper level flow
will begin to transition to a more active southwesterly flow,
which will help increase cloudiness especially as a surface low
begins to develop east of the lower Texas Coast. This will limit
the amount of cooling tonight, but still below freezing in some of
our MS Locations where the cloudiness will not be as much of an
impact.
Going into Saturday, high pressure will remain in place at the
surface. Clouds will likely remain over the region again as upper
level moisture increases downstream of the developing surface low.
Aloft, we'll be watching a shortwave trough move eastward, which
will likely give the low level surface trough/weak low some
support to further deepen over the western Gulf. QPF values are
there in the mesoscale and global models. But, think the low
levels will remain too dry to allow much in the short term period,
in terms of rainfall. Temperatures will remain below average, but
slightly warmer than the past day or two across the region.
(Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 345 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
A short wave will continue to spread east helping deepen a surface
low over the western Gulf. Models are still spatially disagreeing,
but if the GFS is to be believed the low is forecast to be a bit
stronger and track a bit closer to our region, which gives us a
better chance of rainfall (a bit higher QPF) and surface winds
become breezy out of the southeast. Other forecast guidance has
the feature fairly weak and perhaps a bit more suppressed to the
south as the H5 short wave amplifies over the MS River Valley.
Overrunning precip is forecast to begin early Sunday and last
through much of the day. Again, right now breezy surface
conditions do not seem to be a huge problem, but again if the GFS
verifies more breezy conditions could evolve.
As the low exits to the east, high pressure will build in behind
the system. ALoft, the regime will turn to a dry northwest flow
across the region and remain northwest through the rest of the
long term period as an upper level broad scale trough develops
and amplifies over the eastern US. Prior to the larger scale
trough, temperatures will rebound with highs finally warming back
into the 60s and 70s next week. That said, ECM and GEM have a weak
front moving through on Thursday with a weak QPF signal. Needless
to say in this range it's low confidence overall as the GFS does
not have this feature and in fact keeps high pressure over our
region for that same time range. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. For most of
the overnight period, ceilings expected to remain near or above
FL080. Could start seeing SCT-BKN near FL040 by late morning or
early afternoon Saturday, but don't expect flight restrictions at
this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
High pressure continues to move into the region from the north
this afternoon. This will help loosen the tighter pressure
gradient over the local waters by the evening. Mostly benign
marine conditions are expected Saturday, however, eyes will shift
upstream as a surface low develops over the western Gulf. This
feature will spread toward our local waters and increase winds on
Sunday. SCA thresholds will probably be met for most of the Gulf
waters. Depending on how deep this feature gets and how close to
our waters the low tracks, we cannot rule out the possible need
for short fused gale products. As the low moves downstream and
exits our region late Sunday or early Monday, high pressure
spreads back into the region bringing down winds and seas to more
favorable levels through the rest of the forecast period. (Frye)
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
With the arctic air currently over the area, here are the
record low temperatures for today through Saturday morning at
our local sites.
Record lows today through Saturday...POR is period of record
Location (POR) Today Saturday
BTR (1892) 25/1908/2025 24/1978
MSY (1946) 31/1978 26/1978
MCB (1948) 21/1978 15/1978
GPT (1893) 28/2025 23/1978
ASD (1994) 31/2021 28/1999
PQL (1997) 30/2021 23/1999
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 30 54 35 51 / 0 0 20 60
BTR 35 54 41 53 / 10 10 50 80
ASD 35 60 40 55 / 0 0 20 70
MSY 40 55 45 55 / 0 0 30 80
GPT 35 59 41 55 / 0 0 10 60
PQL 32 63 39 58 / 0 0 10 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 21, 9:46 PM CST ...New UPDATE...---------------
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