IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 26, 1:33 AM EST637
FXUS63 KIWX 260633
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
133 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light rain showers today.
- Cold this weekend with highs near freezing.
- Moderating temperatures and renewed rain chances next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2025
Upstream shortwave disturbance over SD will sharpen sewd into
cntrl IN by aftn, sparking additional elevated shower
development within increasing downstream warm advection regime.
However deep/dry sub cloud layer will be detrimental to expected
rainfall as noted in upstream 00Z raobs out of DVN and ILX.
Nonetheless spread of remnant EML atop return H85 theta-e ridge
does suggest low chc of elevated thunder potential far south
for a time this aftn, similar to whats observed currently
upstream on nose of LLJ in srn IA and perhaps with better low
level moisture in time, will elicit a more robust response far
southeast late aftn before sys exists east.
Shallow post frontal cold advection follows overnight with some
drizzle likely withing lingering moist boundary layer and weak
ascent. Diurnal heating beneath upper cold pool Thu aftn may
also spark a few showers in response to secondary disturbance
dropping sewd through the wrn lakes.
Thereafter a general springtime roller coaster as a more potent
clipper sys wraps up through the nrn lakes Fri bringing a windy
but mild day followed by a sharp cold frontal passage Fri
evening. Much colder weather follows Sat-Sun with a few snow
showers Sat.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
VFR conditions should prevail at both KSBN and KFWA through the
evening w/ mainly clear skies giving way to increasing mid-level
cloud cover after 06z along with periodic sprinkles of very
light rain showers. Ceilings are expected to lower through the
night, with showers increasing in coverage/intensity after 12z
at KSBN and after 14z at KFWA. Both terminals may experience
MVFR visibilities due to showers and patchy fog/mist, with
potential for more widespread MVFR ceilings to develop after 18z
Wednesday.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Skipper
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 26, 1:33 AM EST---------------
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