IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 24, 1:51 PM EST879
FXUS63 KIWX 241851
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
151 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A 20% to 30% chance of rain showers tonight.
- Mild on Tuesday and Wednesday with rain arriving Wednesday
morning.
- Not as warm Thursday through the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2025
The parade of upper-level shortwaves continues tonight amid
northwest flow aloft. Broad low pressure over the Central Plains
this afternoon will track east tonight and bring a brief opportunity
for showers to move through. Forecast soundings show lingering low-
level dry air which, in conjunction with a short residence time,
will overwhelmingly limit rainfall amounts to a couple hundredths at
best. Therefore, will maintain the 20-30% chance in the forecast.
Low-level thermal advection is neutral overnight with generally
boundary-parallel flow noted. Factor in clouds and overnight lows
will be just above freezing; an ample enough spring board for a
run at 50 degrees again Tuesday afternoon except where a snow
pack lingers. A brief shot of cold air advection is noted
Tuesday before southwest flow resumes at 850-mb, thus, northern
locations could be trapped in the 40s.
As has been well advertised, the best chance of rain this week is
slated for Wednesday as a low tracks through northern Michigan. A
cold front extending southwest from this feature will be the primary
focus of showers and eventually the cool down anticipated for
Thursday. Rain amounts of < 0.25" are anticipated.
Not as warm Thursday through the end of the week as yet another
upper-level impulse ripples through the Great Lakes. Canadian high
pressure inches closer as well such that the first days of
meteorological Spring begin with below-normal temperatures and a
slight chance (20%) of snowflakes toward the Michigan state line.
&&146
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2025
Wind gusts between 20 and 35 kts will be possible this afternoon as
a low level jet swings by. Expect mixing, which struggles to even
reach 925 mb, to die down this evening allowing gusts to relax as
well. As a shortwave approaches the area tonight, plenty of dry air
limits rain. Will continue the PROB30 group for showers and MVFR
CIGs given uncertainty about if it maintains itself that far east
and can even bring MVFR CIGs there.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Roller
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 24, 1:51 PM EST---------------
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