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117 FXUS64 KLIX 200908AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA308 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)Issued at 224 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025Not expecting any locations to make it to 50F today so cold and breezy through today will be the main takeaway. Tonight will have temps back in the same numbers as well see this morning, with a few locations a degree or two cooler. The cold weather advisory will remain for tonight. Fri we will begin to have a few degrees added to our highs. Don't get excited, it will still be cold as highs should only make it to the low 50s while some will still stay in the 40s. Another light freeze north Fri night as we will begin to feel several degrees added to lows. Other than very cold conditions, there will be no other issues in the short term.&&.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)Issued at 224 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025Another system moves through over the weekend but the sfc low with this remains offshore keeping the area fairly cool. The upper level flow will be quite strong and could produce some sh/ts by Sunday morning. This would be all elevated as well and with temps starting Sunday in the 40s, this will be a very cold rain. After the weekend, we will feel a definite warm up for next week and no rain for several days. Taking a bit of an upclose view of the weekend and some interesting features stand out. We can start with the development of a sfc low near Brownsville on Sat. The next feature to fit the strange column is a westward moving inverted trough over the eastern gulf. Strange for this time of year, but this feature is not being developed or even supported by easterlies since that is not even a factor this time of year. But instead, it is being developed by the refusal of the high over the NW gulf to move as return flow develops over the eastern gulf ahead of the next digging trough. This can best be viewed at the 850mb level in any model solution when looking at Sat morning. By Sat night into Sun, this 850mb anticyclonic wind field over the NW gulf will break down as the sfc low moves through the northern gulf. The high building in from the north is strong and causes this sfc low to remain offshore. But it does throw some moisture back over our area, just how much is still yet to be known. But the moisture that does make its way to our area will comprise of a depth from 5kft to 25kft. Basically, we will see overcast cloud bases at 5kft Sunday with tops at 25kft. This is a 20kft thick cloud deck that will produce rain but not a high prob of lightning. The lowest thickness that can produce lightning here is around 20kft, so this depth just makes it into that category, but temps at mid level and cloud top levels would have to be very cold with those depths of cloud preferably around or lower than -20C at 500mb. Temps at 500mb on Sunday are around -16C or slightly warmer. Does this mean not one spark will be produced? No, but the probability would be very low. This cloud thickness changes as one moves closer to the sfc low offshore though. But this should not be close enough to bring any lightning to the coast. This won't be heavy rain but we may see some bright banding on radar since some of it will be ice melting at and below 9kft. After Sunday, there looks to be some dry conditions for several days with warmer temps.&&.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 224 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025MVFR cigs will begin to decay and move out around or shortly afterdaylight this morning becoming VFR through this taf cycle.&&.MARINE...Issued at 224 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025Small craft advisories will remain over all waters as strong high pressure builds in over the area. Another sfc low will begin to develop in the western gulf causing winds to shift to NE by Fri but remain around 20kt. This low will be the next weather impact for the northern gulf over the weekend. Winds will shift to E by late Sun as the sfc low moves through the northern/central gulf. The low will move SE late Sunday bringing the sh/ts with it away from the northern gulf by Mon.&&.CLIMATE...Issued at 224 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025With the arctic air currently over the area, here are therecord low temperatures for today through Saturday morning atour local sites.Record lows today through Saturday...POR is period of recordLocation (POR) Today Friday Saturday BTR (1892) 25/2021 25/1908 24/1978 MSY (1946) 26/1978 31/1978 26/1978 MCB (1948) 19/1978 21/1978 15/1978 GPT (1893) 27/2021 29/1898 23/1978 ASD (1994) 26/2021 31/2021 28/1999PQL (1997) 24/2015 30/2021 23/1999&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 40 21 46 30 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 43 25 50 35 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 47 25 51 34 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 45 31 47 40 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 46 26 51 35 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 48 25 52 32 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Friday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Friday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.&&$$SHORT TERM...TELONG TERM....TEAVIATION...TEMARINE...TE
