LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 19, 10:30 PM CST ...New AVIATION...316
FXUS64 KLIX 200430
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1030 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 314 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
KEY MESSAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS:
1. Freezing conditions expected across the New Orleans metro and
Southshore with Hard Freeze conditions expected across the
Northshore, Baton Rouge metro, and southern Mississippi. Protect
people, pipes, pets, and plants.
2. Hazardous wind chills between 10 to 25 degrees are expected
both Thursday and Friday mornings. Wear layers and cover exposed
skin to avoid symptoms of frostbite and hypothermia.
Post-frontal stratus and gusty northerly winds upwards
of 30 mph have been the prevailing weather today in association with
an Arctic frontal system now pushing through the Gulf and a
potent 1050mb surface high pressure system coming down from Canada
in its wake. Cold air advection (CAA) and cloud cover has kept
temperatures far below NBM guidance and closer to the 10th
percentile thus far. Stratus is expected to gradually clear out
into the overnight hours allowing temperatures to fall
predominantly due to strong CAA, but with some help from
radiational cooling. The tightened pressure gradient and CAA will
be maintained into Thursday, but will gradually weaken throughout
the day. Despite the ample sunshine, highs will struggle to exceed
the 40s areawide. Record low maximum temperatures could be set at
numerous sites given how temperatures will struggle to warm. This
will tee things up nicely for temps to quickly fall back below
freezing on Thursday night with some areas like BTR challenging
daily record minimums. A new Cold Weather Advisory is being issued
predominantly for actual temps on the northern half of the CWA
while the southern half will be due to wind chills nearing
criteria of 25F. While we have already far and exceed this type of
cold this year, it's still important to protect people, pipes,
pets, and plants during these freeze/hard freeze conditions.
Fortunately, no frozen precipitation nor all-time record low
temperatures will be associated with this system.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 314 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
The strong Arctic surface high pressure system will
gradually weaken and move into the eastern CONUS causing the
pressure gradient to break down and offshore winds to weaken. With a
deep dry air mass throughout the lower atmosphere, the approach of a
weak shortwave trough within the southern stream of CONUS will not
have much to work with other than just weak isentropic ascent
generating stratiform precip via a surface trough along the Gulf
Coast on Saturday night into Sunday morning. I have dropped PoPs
down for this period, blending it more with global guidance to
reflect pessimistic QPF forecast, especially north of the I-10/12
corridor.
Thereafter, rising heights from shortwave ridging will allow for a
gradual warm up into Monday and Tuesday. Though the longwave pattern
will continue to favor northwesterly flow with drier, more
seasonable conditions overall, the general trend will be for another
warm up back into the 70s with above average temperatures into next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
MVFR conditions prevail at all area airports. These conditions
will persist at BTR and ASD through the end of the forecast
period. All other area airports will improve to VFR conditions by
tomorrow late afternoon/evening. Some wind shifts greater than 30
degrees will be possible as well at all area airports. MSW
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 314 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
Gale conditions continue to abate behind the front, but gusty
winds in excess of 25-35 knots still remain in the outer Gulf
waters. The tight pressure gradient on the southern flank of the
Arctic high pressure system over CONUS will continue to create
unsettled winds and seas over the northern Gulf through Friday
before the pressure gradient finally begins to weaken. Calmer
offshore to easterly winds and seas are favored over the weekend
and into next week. A weak surface trough will provide more rain
chances along the coast on Saturday night into Sunday morning, but
will predominantly be of impact to smaller vessels.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1148 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
With the expected arctic blast arriving tomorrow, here are the
record low temperatures for Thursday through Saturday mornings at
our local sites.
Record lows Thursday through Saturday...POR is period of record
Location (POR) Thursday Friday Saturday
BTR (1892) 25/2021 25/1908 24/1978
MSY (1946) 26/1978 31/1978 26/1978
MCB (1948) 19/1978 21/1978 15/1978
GPT (1893) 27/2021 29/1898 23/1978
ASD (1994) 26/2021 31/2021 28/1999
PQL (1997) 24/2015 30/2021 23/1999
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 42 21 41 21 / 20 0 0 0
BTR 46 25 46 26 / 10 0 0 0
ASD 53 27 48 25 / 40 0 0 0
MSY 55 30 46 31 / 30 0 0 0
GPT 52 28 47 26 / 70 0 0 0
PQL 54 28 49 25 / 80 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 10 AM CST Friday for
LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for MSZ068>071-
077-083>088.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 10 AM CST Friday for
MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...TJS
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 19, 10:30 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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