ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 20, 6:21 AM EST243
FXUS61 KILN 201121
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
621 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A few flurries and snow showers will linger today before a
moderating trend in temperatures evolves this weekend into early
next week. Dry conditions should prevail into early next week
before several chances for light precipitation return by midweek
of next week. A warmer pattern is likely to evolve by midweek as
well.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The primary band of light snow, courtesy of enhanced forcing
from a digging H5 low, will continue to pull E of the local area
through the predawn hours, with widespread flurries lingering
in its wake through sunrise. The relatively light and
progressive nature of the snow has kept new snow amounts
generally one half inch or less. Although there has been some
accumulation on roadways, owing to the very cold ground/air
temps, most roads are relatively snow-free, particularly in
areas where it has transitioned to steady flurries.
Even with expansive cloud cover entrenched across the region
and light, but steady, sfc wind, temps will generally bottom
out in the lower to mid teens by daybreak. A few upper single
digit readings are likely in parts of SE/EC IN. In these areas,
some wind chill values will be below zero, but do not think that
they will reach cold weather advisory criteria.
While the widespread light snow/flurries should decrease in
coverage into the daytime period, a few patchy flurries will be
possible from time-to-time into midday as temps rebound into the
lower 20s area-wide.
By late this afternoon through the evening, NW flow in the low
levels will allow for a streamer of lake-enhanced moisture to
drift to the SE into far nrn parts of the local area into
central OH. This will serve as a focus for a narrow axis of
continued snow shower or flurry activity, particularly within a
corridor from Mercer Co OH to Delaware/Licking Cos OH. While
additional snow accumulations late afternoon through the evening
should be light/minor, suppose an additional quarter to maybe
half of an inch cannot be ruled out within these areas. The
overall coverage of activity should dwindle area-wide by
midnight and beyond.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The midlevel low will pull well to the E of the OH Vly tonight
into the day Friday, leaving NW flow aloft in its wake. Sfc high
pressure will settle into the region into the day Friday,
although the prospect of clearing out area-wide remains somewhat
uncertain. Do think that by late in the day, the LL flow will go
more out of the W, opposed to the NW, helping advect in some
drier air, yielding a slowly-clearing sky from W to E through
the afternoon. Central OH will see clouds linger the longest,
especially as the cloud-bearing flow will continue to be off the
lakes, replenishing moisture and keeping conditions generally
mostly cloudy until early evening.
Lows tonight will range from the upper single digits (Tri-
State/N KY/SE IN) to the mid teens (WC/central OH). The
prospect of lighter winds and partly cloudy skies early Friday
morning across far SW parts of the area lends itself to higher
probabilities in colder conditions in these areas than further
to the NE from WC to central OH where clouds will linger more
and the wind will be steadier through the night. Highs Friday
will generally range from the mid 20s in WC/central OH to the
lower 30s in N KY and SE IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Friday evening, an area of surface high pressure will be in place
across the Ohio Valley, with generally progressive flow aloft. This
surface high will represent the final stages of the cold air mass
that will have been in place for much of the preceding week. A
warmer pattern is on the way, as broader surface high pressure over
the southeastern states allows for southwesterly flow to develop
across the Ohio Valley. While highs will only range from the upper
20s to upper 30s on Saturday, temperatures should rise above
freezing CWA-wide on Sunday, and then settle into the mid 40s to
lower 50s for the rest of the extended forecast period.
A series of northern stream shortwaves will move across the Great
Lakes this coming week. While the main impacts should remain north
of the ILN CWA, some precipitation (likely primarily rain) may get
far enough south to affect the region Monday night into Tuesday.
There are signs for some greater chances of rain Wednesday into
Thursday, but with some significant model differences on the overall
amplitude of the pattern, and thus the timing of whatever system
follows the series of shortwaves earlier in the week. All in all, no
significant weather impacts are expected through the extended
period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Banded light SN/widespread flurries will continue for the local
terminals through the first hour or two of the TAF period
before decreasing in coverage/intensity. This SN is leading to
prevailing MVFR VSBYs alongside MVFR CIGs, but VSBYs will return
to VFR once the SN comes to an end.
There is the potential for some lake-effect/enhanced SHSN to
pivot back into far nrn parts of the local area past 21z or so,
potentially impacting KCMH/KLCK through 03z or so. However,
confidence in the timing/location of this activity is somewhat
low, so decided to go with a PROB30 for now, with the greatest
chance for some SHSN activity to focus around KCMH/KLCK in the
several hour period around 00z Friday.
MVFR CIGs will attempt to go VFR for wrn sites this morning, with
some scattering out possible during the daytime. However, MVFR
CIGs should once again overspread a larger portion of the local
area, potentially even KCVG/KLUK, between 06z-12z. Light NNW
less than 10kts will go more out of the WNW at 12-15kts, with
gusts to around 20kts, by 18z before subsiding once again to
10kts or less late in the period.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CIGs may persist at times into Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 20, 6:21 AM EST---------------
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