BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 18, 2:48 PM EST260
FXUS61 KBOX 181948
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
248 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong winds start to diminish this evening. It still will be
cold and gusty Wednesday, but with much less wind. A coastal
storm may brush the far southeast New England coast with some
accumulating snow Thursday into Thursday night. Trending milder
and drier Friday into this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages...
* A brief spot snow shower possible across western MA/CT into
this evening
* Blustery and very cold tonight with lows between 5 and 15
above zero
* Wind chills dropping to between 0 to 10 below zero
A powerful low pressure will move through the Maritimes tonight,
and farther from southern New England. This will gradually
weaken the pressure gradient, and allow winds to diminish some.
It will still be gusty, so despite a mainly clear sky, not
expecting temperatures to bottom out as much as would be
possible on a strong radiational cooling night. Should winds
slacken faster than current forecast, low temperatures would
need to be adjusted even lower due to a relatively fresh
snowpack away from the immediate coasts.
Enough wind present to result in wind chills dropping to
between 0 and 10 below zero overnight, but should remain above
the thresholds for any additional Cold Weather Advisories.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Plenty of sunshine Wed, but with much less wind
Pressure gradient continues to relax Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Still gusty but more typical for our region than the high
gusts we've seen the past couple of days. Expecting temperatures
to tick up a notch during the day, but better radiational
cooling conditions should make it even colder Wednesday night.
Below normal temperatures by some 10-15 degrees continue. Still
not think we'll need any Cold Weather Advisories, but this will
be monitored with later forecasts.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Thursday's coastal low likely bringing snow to the south coast,
Cape, and Islands.
* Calmer weather inbound for the weekend, including a slight warm up
for daytime temps.
* High uncertainty surrounding precip for the start of next week.
Thursday Night and Friday...
Models continue to narrow in on the track of the coastal low passing
to our south Thursday night into Friday. NAM12km remains the outlier
and the furthest northwest; however, most ensembles have ticked
slightly further west and north with each subsequent run. With the
slight shift in track, the probability of seeing >3" of snow in 24
hours across the far eastern portion of the Cape and Nantucket has
increased to 50 to 60 percent, with 30 to 40 percent for the south
coast of Rhode Island. The probability for >1" of snow in 24 hours
along the I-95 corridor between Providence and Boston remains near
30 to 40 percent. Confidence remains high that the high to our north
should keep enough lingering cold air for any precip to remain as
snow.
Once the low lifts out Friday, a quick blast of colder air will
bring another rounds of gusty northwest winds with overnight
temperatures falling into the mid-teens.
Saturday and Sunday...
A weak mid-level ridge and associated surface high pressure on
Saturday will allow for a respite from the winter weather. WAA under
the ridge looks to allow some warming of surface temperatures,
bringing them closer to the climatological norm of upper-30s to low-
40s for the weekend. The relaxed pressure gradient under the ridge
should also bring relief from the gusty northwest winds.
Early Next Week...
The start of next week remains very uncertain. Guidance is hinting
at a trough sweeping through southern New England, possibly bringing
a wintry mix of precipitation sometime Monday into Tuesday; however,
model spreads and run-to-run differences are too vast to make any
determinations at this time. Stay tuned for more details.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 00Z...High Confidence
VFR, outside of perhaps a brief localized flurry/snow shower
across western MA/CT. Westerly wind gusts between 35 and 45 kts.
Tonight...High Confidence.
VFR. W wind gusts diminish but still expect gusts to persist in
the 15 to 30 knot range.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night...High Confidence.
VFR. NW winds diminishing throughout the day, gusts earlier on
20 to 25 kts, but subside to less than 15 kts late afternoon.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SN.
Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday through Sunday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High Confidence...
* Gale Warnings continue through tonight
* Freezing Spray Advisories continue into mid morning Wed
Through Wednesday Night...High Confidence.
Strong low pressure lifting north of the Canadian Maritimes will
continue to result in strong cold advection with W wind gusts of
35 to 45 knots into tonight. The pressure gradient should drop
enough later tonight into Wednesday so that Small Craft
Advisories will be able to gradually replace the Gale Warnings.
Expecting winds and seas to subside enough where no marine
headlines should be needed Wednesday Night.
In addition, given the very cold airmass moving across the
waters, expect areas of moderate freezing spray into mid morning
Wed. Freezing Spray Advisories remain in effect.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of snow. Local
visibility 1 nm or less.
Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of snow, chance of
freezing spray. Areas of visibility 1 nm or less.
Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of freezing spray.
Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of freezing spray.
Saturday through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for CTZ002>004.
MA...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ003-005>007-
010>024.
High Wind Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ002-004-
008-009-026.
RI...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ230-236.
Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for
ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ231>235-237-250-
251-254.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/McMinn
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...McMinn
AVIATION...Belk/McMinn
MARINE...Belk/McMinn
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 18, 2:48 PM EST----------------
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