CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 21, 12:40 PM EST001
FXUS61 KCLE 211740
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1240 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the area today and will continue to impact
the area into Sunday. A low pressure system will move across the
region for the start of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 PM...Lingering lake effect snow continues across Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania early this afternoon, though
snow intensity is quickly tapering off as a ridge of high
pressure builds east towards the Ohio Valley, evident via water
vapor imagery.
Previous Discussion...
Scattered lake effect snow showers continue to stream south off of
Lake Erie this morning, extending as far west as the Fremont/Port
Clinton areas and then east through the primary snowbelt. These
showers should continue to diminish in extent as dry air associated
with a high pressure system pushes east. The area that will continue
to see lingering lake effect snow showers will be NW PA. Winds from
the northwest will allow for a weak Lake Huron connection to
develop, potentially impacting Erie County in PA with an additional
1-3 inches of snow possible through this afternoon. Due to the
continued snowfall potential, the Winter Weather Advisory and Lake
Effect Snow Warning remain in effect for Erie County PA until 10 AM
this morning.
By this evening, high pressure will become dominant and no
additional precipitation is expected through this period. There will
be peaks of sunshine possible on Saturday, especially across the
western counties. Temperatures will also improve a bit with highs
today climbing into the 20s with the coldest temperatures still
expected across far NE OH and NW PA. Saturday's highs will climb
into the upper 20s to low 30s. Overnight lows tonight will remain
cold, dropping into the teens with wind chill values falling into
the single digits.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather conditions are expected to continue through the end of
this weekend. High pressure centered near the Mid-Atlantic region on
Sunday will keep our weather quiet on Sunday. A southerly to
southwesterly flow in the low levels will start the milder air
advection across the region. Winds at the surface will be from the
south-southwest 10 to 15 mph Sunday afternoon. High temperatures
will finally rise above the freezing mark into the middle and upper
30s Sunday afternoon. By Sunday night into Monday morning, a weak
low pressure system will move across the Upper Great Lakes region
with an increase of cloud cover and a slight chance in POPs.
Southwest winds will become a little gusty on Monday 15 to 20 mph in
response to that low pressure system tracking north of the region.
Another fast moving and weak low pressure system will track across
the lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley Monday night with
additional chance for rain showers. High temperatures on Monday will
be in the 40s and overnight low temps Monday night staying above
freezing in the mid to upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A fast paced and unsettled weather pattern will develop by the
middle and end of next week. Temperatures will be milder and above
average for the middle next week and then return back to seasonable
by the end of the week. The Great Lakes region will be a under a
west-northwest with fast moving weak storm systems riding along.
There will be a weak low pressure system moving across our area
early on Tuesday with rain showers with temperatures in the 40s. By
the end of next week, a large upper level trough will develop over
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A cold front will push through late
Wednesday night into Thursday with rain showers likely. The precip
may end with a little rain/snow mix by late Thursday or Thursday
evening as slightly colder air returns.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Mainly MVFR ceilings exist across the TAF sites early this
afternoon with brief periods of MVFR vsbys from lake effect
snow. Lake effect snow will gradually lift east of the area and
taper by late this afternoon and evening. For the most part,
ceilings are expected to lift to VFR from west to east this
evening and overnight. However, some models indicate a low
potential for MVFR ceilings currently situated across the Lower
Ohio Valley to lift north as low stratus overnight into
Saturday morning, particularly impacting MFD/CAK/YNG. Confidence
remains low on this potential and will need to be monitored.
Winds are generally from the west to northwest early this
afternoon, 5 to 10 knots. Winds will favor a south to southwest
direction late tonight into Saturday, 5 to 10 knots, increasing
to near 12 knots by Saturday afternoon.
Outlook...Mainly VFR expected through the weekend. Non-VFR is
possible in scattered rain showers Monday into Tuesday. Non-VFR
may return in scattered to perhaps widespread rain and/or snow
Wednesday and Wednesday night.
&&
.MARINE...
A ridge will begin to build from the north-central United States
today. Winds will be from the west 5 to 15 knots today then becoming
from the southwest tonight as the ridge axis shifts eastward across
the Lake Erie region. Southwesterly winds around 10 to 25 knots will
persist Saturday through Sunday as Lake Erie becomes located along
the western flank of the ridge. A trough will move over Lake Erie
Sunday night through Tuesday. Southwesterly winds around 10 to 20
knots are forecast Sunday night through Monday night. By Tuesday, a
cold front will move through followed by westerly winds 10 to 20
knots.
Lake Erie is primarily ice-covered. Therefore any waves in U.S.
waters are expected to be less than one foot through this Tuesday.
Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended until further notice
for nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Ripley due to extensive ice
cover.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04/Kahn
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...77
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 21, 12:40 PM EST---------------
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