IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 20, 5:53 AM EST608
FXUS63 KIND 201053
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
553 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow/flurries through mid-morning, continuing into the
afternoon near Muncie with little to no additional accumulations
- Wind chills as low as -10 this morning, temperatures dropping back
into the single digits again tonight
- Temperatures will warm through the weekend to above normal levels
by early next week
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 221 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2025
Rest of Tonight.
As of early this morning, radar imagery show the band that brought
heavy snow to the Indy metro region has dissipated as it moved
further into southeast Indiana and away from the original moisture
source of Lake Michigan. Elsewhere, light snow/flurries continue
with many surface observations showing visibilities of 3-6 miles.
Expect that as the better forcing continues to move further east
that the coverage of flurries will gradually begin to drop, but
still think that at least scattered to numerous flurries will
continue through the morning rush hour.
Temperatures have run a degree or two above guidance through the
night which increases confidence that morning temperatures/wind
chills will stay above Cold Weather Advisory criteria with wind
chills generally in the -10 to 0 range.
Today.
Isolated to scattered flurries are expected to continue through the
morning hours, but as the vort max that produced the snow continues
to move eastwards, weak subsidence is expected to work into the
area. Models hint that skies will clear by mid-morning, but with the
weak subsidence and CAA aloft, this may be a bit aggressive so will
plan on keeping mostly cloudy wording through at least the mid-
afternoon. Moisture from Lake Michigan will continue to stream
across the northeastern counties through the evening which will
likely keep a few flurries around along with the higher cloud cover.
Tonight.
While there is little support within the models, have some concern
that light snow/flurries will continue into the overnight hours
across the Muncie area based on the expected Lake fetch and
continued cold temperatures. Surface winds are expected to drop near
calm with all but the northeastern counties likely to see mostly
clear skies which increases concern for some of the coldest
temperatures of this cold stretch with overnight lows in the low
single digits.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 221 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2025
The upper level trough that has remained over the eastern U S this
week will lift out to begin the extended period...transitioning to a
more modest northwest flow pattern. With strong high pressure
serving as the primary influence into early next week...we will see
a tranquil weather regime highlighted by dry conditions...plenty of
sunshine and a gradual return to seasonable temperatures.
Upper level height recovery aloft will commence on Friday and
persist for the next several days. At the surface..a strong surface
high with central pressures above 1050mb will slide across the
Plains and eventually shift east across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys by the first part of the weekend. This will maintain an
extended stretch with limited cloud cover and overall quiet weather
which will be a welcome sight for those who have grown weary of the
wintry conditions of late.
A series of weak surface lows track will pass through the Great
Lakes early next week and may generate a few light rain showers
across portions of the forecast area. A deeper surface low will
impact the region for the second half of next week and recent trends
support rain as the primary precipitation type. Prolonged Arctic air
is not likely to return for the end of the month and into the first
week of March...but it seems likely that a shift back to colder than
normal conditions will return for at least a few days in early March.
The warmup in temperatures begins Friday and continues through the
weekend with highs near 40 Sunday. Confidence increasing in highs
rising to above normal levels by early next week in the lower and
mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 553 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2025
Impacts:
- Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys through 18Z with lingering flurries and low
clouds
Discussion:
Snow continues to come to an end with lingering flurries through
14Z. Can't rule out a few additional flurries afterwards towards
18Z, but coverage should be minimal. Clouds also continue to
scatter with some lingering MVFR cigs at BMG through 14Z. Skies are
expected to clear late tonight. Winds will remain northwesterly at 6-
12kts through 00Z tonight before dropping to near calm.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...White
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 20, 5:53 AM EST---------------
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