CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 21, 6:38 AM EST204
FXUS61 KCLE 211138
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
638 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the area today and will continue to impact
the area into Sunday. A low pressure system will move across the
region for the start of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM Update...
Lake effect snow showers continue to push off of Lake Erie this
morning, impacting areas from Lorain County east through the
snow belt. Models suggest the primary forcing for this continued
development is a mix of instability and weak isentropic lift
along the lakeshore. With the previous update, was expecting dry
air to cut off the snowfall potential by now for areas around
Cleveland, however given the continued development on radar and
hi-red guidance, opted to extend chance of snow showers across
the primary and secondary snowbelts through late morning, with
some snow showers lingering in NW PA through this evening.
Overall accumulations should be minimal in OH, with up to 1
inch additional in NW PA. This snowfall may result in some
slick spots during the morning commute. In addition to adjusting
the PoPs, adjusted temperatures as well to reflect current
observations which are a bit warmer than previously forecast.
Previous Discussion...
Scattered lake effect snow showers continue to stream south off of
Lake Erie this morning, extending as far west as the Fremont/Port
Clinton areas and then east through the primary snowbelt. These
showers should continue to diminish in extent as dry air associated
with a high pressure system pushes east. The area that will continue
to see lingering lake effect snow showers will be NW PA. Winds from
the northwest will allow for a weak Lake Huron connection to
develop, potentially impacting Erie County in PA with an additional
1-3 inches of snow possible through this afternoon. Due to the
continued snowfall potential, the Winter Weather Advisory and Lake
Effect Snow Warning remain in effect for Erie County PA until 10 AM
this morning.
By this evening, high pressure will become dominant and no
additional precipitation is expected through this period. There will
be peaks of sunshine possible on Saturday, especially across the
western counties. Temperatures will also improve a bit with highs
today climbing into the 20s with the coldest temperatures still
expected across far NE OH and NW PA. Saturday's highs will climb
into the upper 20s to low 30s. Overnight lows tonight will remain
cold, dropping into the teens with wind chill values falling into
the single digits.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather conditions are expected to continue through the end of
this weekend. High pressure centered near the Mid-Atlantic region on
Sunday will keep our weather quiet on Sunday. A southerly to
southwesterly flow in the low levels will start the milder air
advection across the region. Winds at the surface will be from the
south-southwest 10 to 15 mph Sunday afternoon. High temperatures
will finally rise above the freezing mark into the middle and upper
30s Sunday afternoon. By Sunday night into Monday morning, a weak
low pressure system will move across the Upper Great Lakes region
with an increase of cloud cover and a slight chance in POPs.
Southwest winds will become a little gusty on Monday 15 to 20 mph in
response to that low pressure system tracking north of the region.
Another fast moving and weak low pressure system will track across
the lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley Monday night with
additional chance for rain showers. High temperatures on Monday will
be in the 40s and overnight low temps Monday night staying above
freezing in the mid to upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A fast paced and unsettled weather pattern will develop by the
middle and end of next week. Temperatures will be milder and above
average for the middle next week and then return back to seasonable
by the end of the week. The Great Lakes region will be a under a
west-northwest with fast moving weak storm systems riding along.
There will be a weak low pressure system moving across our area
early on Tuesday with rain showers with temperatures in the 40s. By
the end of next week, a large upper level trough will develop over
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A cold front will push through late
Wednesday night into Thursday with rain showers likely. The precip
may end with a little rain/snow mix by late Thursday or Thursday
evening as slightly colder air returns.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A mix bag of VFR and MVFR conditions are being observed across
northern Ohio as lake effect snow showers continue to stream
south off of Lake Erie. These snow showers have briefly reduced
visibilities as low as 3SM with ceilings hovering near the 3kft
mark. In NW PA, visibilities have been locally reduced to IFR at
KERI due to a heavy band of snow impacting the terminal. Opted
to maintain the IFR potential through late morning with MVFR
visibilities and light snow outside of that time frame.
Ultimately by this evening, all snow showers should stop and the
impacts to terminals will be solely driven by the ceilings.
Current forecast suggests MVFR ceilings at most terminals
into this evening before lifting clouds will allow for a rebound
into VFR conditions into Saturday morning.
West to northwest winds of 5-10 knots will persist through this
evening before becoming southwest at 4-8 knots through the end
of the period.
Outlook...Non-VFR conditions with lake effect snow showers and
clouds may continue across the area through Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
A ridge will begin to build from the north-central United States
today. Winds will be from the west 5 to 15 knots today then becoming
from the southwest tonight as the ridge axis shifts eastward across
the Lake Erie region. Southwesterly winds around 10 to 25 knots will
persist Saturday through Sunday as Lake Erie becomes located along
the western flank of the ridge. A trough will move over Lake Erie
Sunday night through Tuesday. Southwesterly winds around 10 to 20
knots are forecast Sunday night through Monday night. By Tuesday, a
cold front will move through followed by westerly winds 10 to 20
knots.
Lake Erie is primarily ice-covered. Therefore any waves in U.S.
waters are expected to be less than one foot through this Tuesday.
Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended until further notice
for nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Ripley due to extensive ice
cover.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
PAZ001.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for
PAZ002.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...04
MARINE...77
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 21, 6:38 AM EST---------------
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