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179 FXUS64 KMOB 180901AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL301 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Wednesday Night)Issued at 301 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025Zonal flow aloft steadily strengthens as we head into this evening. A trough rapidly digs across the central CONUS tonight into Wednesday morning along with a southern stream shortwave transiting the gulf coast states. These will be responsible for a quickly developing area of low pressure over the northern gulf that tracks across our marine waters. Ample upper divergence overspreads the region during this timeframe, allowing for a widespread moderate to at times heavy soaking rain late tonight into the first half of the day Wednesday. We will remain on the cool side of the system keeping any chances for thunderstorms well offshore to our south. Rain chances gradually diminish in the wake of the system as we head into Wednesday afternoon, with all locations drying out by sunset.Temperatures will be near normal for today with interior portions of the forecast area seeing upper 50's to near 60 for highs and locations nearer the coast warming into the lower 60's. Tonight should stay relatively warmer with increased cloud cover and ample coverage of precipitation overspreading the region late tonight.Expect lows to bottom out in the upper 30's and lower 40's over the interior, with middle to upper 40's nearer the coast. Wednesday highs will be quite chilly as strong cold advection builds in the wake of the coastal low and cloud cover remains in place. Highs will only top out in the middle to upper 40's over interior portions of southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama. Elsewhere should manage lower to middle 50's, warmest nearer the coast. Wednesday night is where we see the true cold snap building in, with overnight lows falling into the lower to middle 20's over the interior and upper 20's and lower 30's nearer the coast. Cold Weather Advisories will become necessary for wind chills ranging from the upper single digits to middle teens across much of the interior portions of the forecast area Wednesday night. A low risk of rip currents today becomes a moderate risk tonight into Wednesday. MM/25&&.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday Night) Issued at 301 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025Winter returns in a big way for Thursday and Thursday night asarctic high pressure builds into the region. Strong low level coldair advection will continue through the day which means that highs will not make it out of the 40s, perhaps staying in the upper 30s over far inland areas. Highs this cold is fairly unusual for late February. To put it in perspective, for February 20th, Mobile has only had seven days with highs in the 40s, with the record low high temperature of 47 set back in 1940. Pensacola has had only 6 days of highs in the 40s, with a record low high of 44 set in 1921. The current forecast highs for Thursday are 44 in Mobile and 47 in Pensacola. In addition, continued gusty north winds will keep wind chills in the 20s and 30s for the majority of the day. Thursday night/Friday morning will be bitterly cold. The questionis just how cold? The center of the arctic high will still becentered Missouri by daybreak Friday, meaning that the pressuregradient will remain fairly tight over our local area. This willlikely keep winds elevated and the atmosphere mixed. Therefore,will not go quite as cold as what the GFS/ECMWF MOS suggests and lean toward the NBM guidance. However, this still results in lowsin the upper teens/lower 20s across the northern half of the areawith mid to upper 20s along the coast. The current forecast low at Mobile Friday morning is 24. This would break the old record of28. The record is colder at Pensacola (21) and our current forecast is for 29. It's also worth noting that Friday morning wind chills will once again drop into the teens. Friday will only see a small moderation in temperatures with highsstill about 15 degrees below normal. Increasing mid and high levelclouds by Friday night will likely result in lows not getting ascold as they otherwise would. We should still see lows in theupper 20s well inland with mid to upper 30s along the coast.34/JFB&&.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Monday) Issued at 301 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025The arctic high will quickly weaken and shift well east of thearea over the weekend. The upper level flow will become veryactive with a series of shortwaves moving through in WNW-NW flow aloft. The timing of the waves and the degree of any moisture return is very uncertain this far out. There is small chance of rain by Saturday night/Sunday, but this will be very dependent on seeing sufficient moisture recovery, which may be tough to do. What we are more certain of is a gradual warming trend over the weekend into early next week. 34/JFB&&.MARINE...Issued at 301 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025Easterly flow today gradually turns southeast tonight, strengthening to a strong easterly flow by Wednesday morning for much of the gulf marine waters as a surface low tracks just south of the 20 to 60 nautical mile gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect for the marine waters, starting in the western gulf waters adjacent to the Alabama coast out to 60 nautical miles prior to daybreak Wednesday and expanding to the rest of the offshore waters adjacent to the western Florida Panhandle by mid morning. Strong northerly flow develops in the wake of the system, with Small Craft Advisory conditions spreading into the bays and sounds Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Strong offshore winds will continue over the 0 to 60 nautical mile gulf waters through Thursday night. Winds slowly diminish Friday and become northeasterly, eventually becoming a light to moderate easterly flow by Saturday. MM/25&&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ630>634. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ650-670. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ655-675.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
