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029 FXUS64 KLIX 180925AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA325 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)Issued at 312 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025Cloud cover will begin to increase today and some rain will also begin to sneak into the picture. As the day progresses, more rain and eventually some storms will show up but this should be around and after sunset. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected for several hours overnight tonight into Wed morning. The rain and storms will move east and should be out of the area noon Wed. Heavy rainfall will be the highest hazard with this over most if not all locations tonight. Storms will move through as well but none of these look to be sfc based. There is a low risk of hail with some of these, but large hail is an even lower risk but it still shows up as possible. These variables change as one approaches the coast and all of this becomes sfc based over the gulf. Just where this line is at will be the question while the event is ongoing. The sfc based line looks to be just offshore of the coast. If this is the case, then hail would be the only issue to look for in the severe category. But, we can't cut this sfc based line that thin and precise. We will give some room for this line to be just inland with the low as it passes and so there will be that marginal chance of a sfc based severe storm overnight only at the coast or just inland from the coast. There will be some impressive looking cells with this offshore and this is where most of the severe wx warnings look to be issued. The sfc low moves east of the area Wed and by afternoon but it will still take some time to clear out but we may do so Wed night. Indications are that this will be a cold rain as temps will not move much from around 60F at the coast to the upper 30s north tonight. No wintry wx mixing in, that should be north of our area. Cloud cover and CAA will keep temps from getting much warmer Wed as well. Temps will plunge Wed night with strong freezing temps possibly in the lower 20s north and just below freezing south.&&.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)Issued at 312 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025Cold air will still be dumping into the area Thu and temps will reflect this as they stay in the 40s area wide. Another freeze Thu night with temps not much different than the previous night. Fri will bring highs up a few degrees to tickle the 50s but not much more than that and lows Fri night will be a bit warmer with just below freezing north but still quite cool area wide. Another system moves through over the weekend as the sfc low with this also remains offshore keeping the area fairly cool over the weekend as well. The upper level flow will be quite strong as well and could produce some sh/ts by late Sat. This would be all elevated as well. Basically, the remainder of this week will be cold with two bouts of rain and storms pretty much sums it up.&&.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS)Issued at 312 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025VFR will start with cigs moving in and lowering through the day bringing them to MVFR levels after sunset. Cigs will continue lowering through the night and should be at IFR levels by midnight tonight. All terminals will have persistant SHRA tonight with a few TSRA moving through as well. The heaviest rainfall will cause IFR vis while it lasts.&&.MARINE...Issued at 312 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025SE winds will rise to 15-20kt ahead of a sfc low that will impact the northern gulf tonight through Wed morning. As the low moves east, winds will shift to north Wed morning and quickly rise to 25-30kt with freqent gusts to gales into the evening hours as the sfc low moves east, these winds will lower through the evening hours. A gale watch has been posted for marine areas where these winds are most likely. Small craft advisories have been posted outside these areas that will start this morning. Another sfc low will begin to develop in the western gulf causing winds to shift to NE by Fri but remain around 20kt. This low will be the next weather impact for the northern gulf over the weekend.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 62 39 47 21 / 0 100 10 0 BTR 65 44 51 25 / 10 100 10 0 ASD 65 49 56 27 / 0 100 40 0 MSY 65 51 57 31 / 10 100 30 0 GPT 63 48 56 27 / 0 100 60 0 PQL 66 48 58 28 / 0 100 70 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 8 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ530- 532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ550-552-570-572. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for GMZ550-552-570-572.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 8 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ532- 534-536-538-555-557-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ552-570-572. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for GMZ552-570-572.&&$$SHORT TERM...TELONG TERM....TEAVIATION...TEMARINE...TE
