LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 16, 6:38 PM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...073
FXUS63 KLMK 162338
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
638 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Raw/cold afternoon expected with some light snow showers
continuing across southern IN and northern KY.
* Cold temperatures are expected tonight and will lead to residual
water refreezing on untreated road surfaces. Areas of black ice
are possible.
* A SIGNIFICANT winter storm is forecast to impact the region
Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Significant and
impactful snow accumulations are likely. A Winter Storm WATCH
has been issued for all of southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
* Very cold temperatures are expected after the mid-week winter
storm.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 331 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025
A cold and blustery afternoon was in progress across southern Indiana
and central Kentucky. Gusty northwest winds were noted across the
region with afternoon temperatures in the upper 30s to around 30.
Area radars had some light returns, but based on observations, very
light flurries and/or light freezing drizzle was being reported.
Most likely we have lost a little bit of moisture within the DGZ as
of this writing. As the afternoon wears on, temperatures are
expected to slowly drop into the upper 20s area wide. For now,
we'll keep the Winter Weather Advisory going through 700 PM to
account for the afternoon precipitation and still hazardous road
conditions across our northeastern sections.
This evening, a few weak perturbations in the flow aloft will move
across the region. Lapse rates will steepen a bit given the
continued cold advection aloft and the combination of the these two
may lead to a period of snow flurries and perhaps maybe some snow
showers. The best chances of this look to be along and northeast of
a line from roughly French Lick, IN to roughly Richmond, KY. Given
the lack of moisture and expected light character of precipitation,
not expecting much in the way of additional accumulation. Perhaps a
dusting to maybe a tenth or two of an inch. Current thinking is
that stronger lift and upslope flow just to our east will keep the
best precipitation chances to our east. Overnight, temperatures
will drop into the mid-upper teens over southern Indiana and the
northern half of Kentucky, with lower 20s across far southern KY.
These cold temps will result in some black ice development across
the area where residual water on roadways will freeze. We will
highlight this potential with a Special Weather Statement. Should
heavier snow showers develop, a short-fused winter weather advisory
could be required over portions of the area.
Quiet weather is expected on Monday but cold temperatures are
expected. Daytime highs will be in the mid-upper 20s over southern
Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. Southern Kentucky will
see highs in the lower 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 331 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025
Monday Night through Tuesday...
Generally flat upper level flow will be found across the region
Monday night. A weak perturbation moving through in the flow may
spread some light snows across northern MO, southern IL and into
southern IN by daybreak Tuesday. The best chances of any light snow
look to be generally north of the of the I-64 corridor. Lows Monday
night will be in the mid teens across southern IN and the northern
half of Kentucky, with lower 20s across southern Kentucky. Highs
Tuesday will feature a gradient of temperature across the region.
Highs from the mid-upper 20s will be seen across southern Indiana
and the northern half of Kentucky, with southern Kentucky seeing
highs in the 30-35 degree range.
Tuesday Night through Sunday...
* SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION *
Overall, a rather complex storm system is coming into focus that
will bring significant amounts of snow to the region Tuesday night
and into the day on Wednesday. Aloft, a mid-level wave is expected
to amplify across the Plains and slide eastward through the Ohio
Valley. As this occurs, a surface arctic frontal boundary will be
pushing into the region from the north which will allow strong
surface convergence to take place. Combination of strong isentropic
lift and increasing low-mid level frontogenesis will overspread the
region Tuesday night and Wednesday resulting in strong synoptic
scale lift. Aiding in the lift, much of northern TN and central
Kentucky will be within the favored right entrance region of the 300-
250 hPa upper level jet streak. The column will be cold enough for
this event to support all snow. The latest trends in the models
suggest a stronger moisture flux into the region and with pretty
high snow to liquid ratios, significant amounts of snowfall are
expected.
In terms of snowfall, there remains considerable spread in the
snowfall amounts in the ensemble envelope. On the bust side of
things, perhaps 2-3 inches could occur with this storm, but on the
boom side, some areas could be looking at close to double digit
snowfall amounts. This forecast sticks close to the mean of the
Euro ensemble and GFS ensembles which results in a forecast average
snowfall in the 4-7 inch range. Given the relatively strong
agreement from the models and the notable upward trend in QPF, a
Winter Storm WATCH has been posted with this forecast update. As of
this writing, we believe that the heaviest snow band may develop
from roughly Henderson through Elizabethtown eastward to Richmond.
Much of this snow will fall from mid-late evening Tuesday through
Wednesday afternoon with things diminishing Wednesday evening.
Residents of southern Indiana and central Kentucky are urged to
monitor the latest forecasts and prepare for a significant winter
storm.
In the wake of this snow storm, very cold weather is expected for
the remainder of the week. Lows Wednesday night will drop into the
single digits with wind chills decreasing to below zero. Highs on
Thursday may struggle to get into the teens, with lows Thursday
night dropping into the low single digits perhaps even below zero in
spots. Highs Friday may struggle again to get into the mid-upper
teens, with lows Saturday morning dropping back into the low single
digits. Some moderation in temps is possible this weekend. The NBM
blend here seems to aggressive, so have gone well below given the
expectation of snowpack across the area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025
Impacts/Confidence:
- High confidence in MVFR ceilings tonight
- High confidence in decreasing winds and snow chances tonight
Discussion...MVFR cloud deck will continue moving across the area
tonight with brief periods of reduced visibilities as slightly-
enhanced snow showers transition towards LEX and RGA. Overall, light
snow/flurry activity is expected to end later this evening from west
to east. Although MOS guidance and forecast soundings have MVFR
ceilings lingering through Monday morning, decided to be more
optimistic and lift ceilings to VFR later tonight based on motion of
back edge of the stratus deck. Only caveat would be if clouds
backbuild tonight or move slower. Finally, winds gusts will cease
tonight with light flow for tomorrow.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening
for KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-067.
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
evening for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-
081-082.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening
for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
evening for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...ALL
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 16, 6:38 PM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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