WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Feb 14, 8:12 PM CST603
AGUS74 KWCO 150217
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #018 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
812 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
WHAT: Considerable flash and urban flooding likely
WHERE: Western and middle Tennessee, and western and central Kentucky
WHEN: Beginning overnight and continuing through Saturday morning
Forecast Rainfall and Antecedent Conditions...
QPF: 1 - 3" (HREF, HRRR, WPC)
QPE: 1 - 3", past 7 days (RFC QPE)
Rainfall Rates: 1 - 2"/hr (NAM, HRRR)
Soil Moisture: 60 - 80% RSM (0 - 10 cm, NASA SPoRT)
Climatological Streamflows: Much above normal (USGS)
DISCUSSION...
Considerable flooding impacts are likely beginning overnight and will
continue through much of Saturday morning across the area of concern
as multiple rounds of heavy showers and storms move over the region.
Current soil moisture and streamflow values indicate little to no
infiltration capacity following recent rainfall and snowmelt
(particularly across portions of KY), and these factors suggest that
the expected heavy rainfall will immediately be converted to runoff
into nearby swollen creeks and streams. Training storms, as well as
the potential for embedded intense rainfall rates, will likely
overwhelm storm drains and culverts and generate widespread areas of
standing water on roadways and in low-lying areas, particularly in
urban areas. Larger cities at risk for significant flooding include
Memphis, Nashville, Clarksville, Paducah, Bowling Green, Lexington,
and Louisville.
Guidance from the HRRR-forced NWM suggests widespread streamflow
responses across the area of concern from Memphis to Louisville, with
peak flows expected as early as Saturday morning, with most flows not
peaking until later in the day on Saturday. Probabilities of rapid
onset flooding are 75 - 100%, which gives high confidence in the
likelihood of small stream flooding and associated impacts. The High
Flow Magnitude forecast indicates scattered areas of AEPs below 20%,
particularly near Nashville, Clarksville, and further north into
portions of south-central KY. These AEPs increase confidence in the
likelihood of significant small stream responses and subsequent
flooding. An additional AHD will likely be warranted as showers and
storms are expected to continue through much of the day on Saturday.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at
weather.gov/owp/operations
//JDP
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LMK...JKL...OHX
ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...WPC
Source:
WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Feb 14, 8:12 PM CST---------------
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