PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 9, 10:23 AM EST098
FXUS61 KPBZ 091523
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1023 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
After light snow and flurries taper this afternoon, dry and
seasonable weather returns through Monday. An unsettled pattern
with more rain and snow chances Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Light snow/flurries expected to taper by early afternoon.
- Mostly cloudy with seasonably cold temperatures.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Precipitation has transitioned over to snow for the most part as
cloud tops have cooled slightly thanks to ongoing cold
advection. North of I-70, snow has ticked up in coverage and
intensity a bit in ongoing northwest flow and perhaps some
modest 700mb frontogenesis. Moisture remains shallow overall
and, with moisture barely reaching into the dendritic growth
region, the snow remains fairly fine in nature and is cutting
down visibility somewhat in a few cases. Expect fairly modest
accumulation overall, remaining under a half-inch in most cases,
save for perhaps slightly more on the ridges. Do expect
coverage to wane by midday/early afternoon as the forcing
weakens and high pressure slowly noses eastward. Reduced high
temperatures a degree or two in most areas with cloud cover
hindering heating. Any lingering wind gusts will also subside as
the surface pressure gradient weakens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry through Monday with continued cloud coverage.
- High temperatures a couple degrees below normal.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Strong low-level cold advection maintain widespread
stratocumulus, flow has backed enough to where lake enhancement
is not a concern through the period.
Quasi-zonal mid-level flow takes hold on Monday while surface high
pressure across the Midwest extends ridging into our area. A stalled
boundary from the weekend system will park off to our south across
the Carolinas with residual moisture locally providing some cloud
coverage that should dwindle some as the day progresses with highs
around normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Active pattern through the extended period.
- Chance of impactful snow potential Tuesday is highest in the
Laurels/WV ridges, with minor accumulation possible to the
west.
- Another system moves through Wednesday night with mixed
precipitation potential.
- Yet another system Saturday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensemble clusters agree on generally flat mid-level flow, suggesting
that the overall pattern remains progressive with changeable
temperatures that do not stray too far from climatology.
Surface high pressure vacates the Upper Ohio Valley Monday
night, while a low develops along an advancing warm front to our
south. There is general agreement on this scenario, with the
main differences arising with storm track. Higher 500mb
heights/surface high pressure tracking from the northern Plains
across the Great Lakes will play a role in how far north the
boundary gets, and therefore has implications on the northern
extent of the precipitation shield. The earlier trend of a more
suppressed storm track/lower QPF was maintained. For now, there
remains general agreement that meaningful probabilities of 3
inches or more of snow from this system remain confined to the
Laurels/WV ridges. The 13Z NBM has roughly 40-80% probabilities
for these areas, with 20% or less for most of the lowlands.
Eastern Tucker still has a 50/50 shot of 6 inches according to
the blend, with very low potential west of the ridges. Still a
bit too early to really pin down accumulation potential, but
confidence in the overall scenario is increasing a bit.
Any break in precipitation during the midweek period looks rather
short-lived, as another, stronger shortwave trough ejects across the
Plains Wednesday night and into the Great Lakes Thursday. The
attendant surface low track appears to be across the Middle Ohio
Valley and eastern Great Lakes during this period. Uncertainty with
this system is higher, as there is more variance in storm track and
speed. However, with the potential surface low track, strong
southwest flow at 850mb appears possible, introducing the potential
for warm air aloft and another round of precipitation type
headaches. Better chances of snow accumulation (40% or greater of
1") appear confined to our northern counties at this time, say north
of US-422.
A dry reprieve is then possible Thursday night and Friday with a
brief visit by surface ridging, before yet another shortwave trough
and round of precipitation potentially arrives during the Friday
night/Saturday period.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lingering frozen precipitation continues to filter through the
northern half of the region. VIS restrictions in this are not
expected outside of FKL. This activity is expected to wind down
after sunrise. Gusts will continue through mid-afternoon Sunday when
the wind field will relax. Building subsidence and dry advection
will lift CIGs slowly through the daytime hours. Probabilities for
IFR CIGs remain elevated for FKL/DUJ through mid morning. A high
confidence (>80%) period of MVFR CIGs continues through the day on
Sunday with probabilities degrading some overnight but not much.
Subsidence will trap lingering boundary layer moisture below an
inversion where it will remain until drier air can finally build in
likely near the end of the current TAF period.
Outlook...
VFR will return by Monday afternoon (near 90% probability) with
only FKL/DUJ potentially seeing lingering restrictions
underneath zonal flow.
This week features an active pattern with multiple low pressure
systems starting Tuesday likely leading to prolonged periods of
restrictions with varying wintry precipitation types.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...CL/88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...CL/88
AVIATION...MLB/AK
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 9, 10:23 AM EST---------------
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